Scouting Report
Joe Pavelski holds a +7.0% FO% edge overall.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Pavelski 54.4% vs Smith 48.2% (+7.0%)
H2H factor
Not applied (5 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Smith 75.6%
Defensive zone
Smith 74.5%
Neutral zone
Smith 72.9%
Result
Zack Smith favored at 74.1%
25.9%
74.1%
Pavelski
Smith
Head-to-Head Record
1
-
4
(5 meetings)
1
4
Pavelski
Smith
Last 5: Pavelski 1-4 Smith
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Smith
0
1
Pavelski
Smith
1 total
Defensive Zone
Even
1
1
Pavelski
Smith
2 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Smith
0
2
Pavelski
Smith
2 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Pavelski
Smith
Edge
Even Strength
53.2% (690)
49.7% (485)
+3.5%
Power Play
61.5% (174)
46.8% (47)
+14.7%
Penalty Kill
55.3% (47)
38.6% (88)
+16.7%
On penalty kill, Pavelski has a +16.7% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Smith shoots left. Pavelski is 52.9% vs left-shot opponents (707).
Pavelski shoots right. Smith is 47.2% vs right-shot opponents (246).
Home / Away
Pavelski
Smith
Home
56.1% (421)
48.7% (310)
Away
53.9% (490)
47.1% (310)
By Period
Pavelski
Smith
P1
57.1%
45.8%
P2
55.8%
47.4%
P3
52.5%
50.5%
OT
44.4%
50.0%
Final 5 min
60.8%
45.5%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Pavelski
62.0%▲
52.0%
54.9%
Smith
40.0%▼
47.0%
47.9%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 5, 2018 | 3 | 07:24 | Defensive | Joe Pavelski |
| Jan 5, 2018 | 3 | 00:37 | Offensive | Zack Smith |
| Jan 5, 2018 | 3 | 00:26 | Neutral | Zack Smith |
| Jan 5, 2018 | 1 | 12:56 | Neutral | Zack Smith |
| Jan 5, 2018 | 1 | 07:45 | Defensive | Zack Smith |