Scouting Report
Tyler Johnson holds a +7.7% FO% edge overall. Look for Johnson on neutral-zone draws (100% H2H, 4 meetings). Johnson wins 63.3% vs left-shot opponents — Smith shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Johnson 55.2% vs Smith 51.6% (+7.7%)
H2H factor
Not applied (5 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Johnson 69.5%
Defensive zone
Johnson 69.9%
Neutral zone
Johnson 63.4%
Result
Tyler Johnson favored at 64.6%
64.6%
35.4%
Johnson
Smith
Head-to-Head Record
4
-
1
(5 meetings)
4
1
Johnson
Smith
Last 5: Johnson 4-1 Smith
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Smith
0
1
Johnson
Smith
1 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Johnson
4
0
Johnson
Smith
4 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Johnson
Smith
Edge
Even Strength
55.9% (93)
52.6% (635)
+3.3%
Power Play
66.7% (18)
45.5% (44)
+21.2%
Penalty Kill
80.0% (10)
48.1% (52)
+31.9%
On penalty kill, Johnson has a +31.9% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Smith shoots left. Johnson is 63.3% vs left-shot opponents (79).
Johnson shoots right. Smith is 48.1% vs right-shot opponents (289).
Home / Away
Johnson
Smith
Home
67.2% (61)
53.4% (371)
Away
51.7% (60)
50.3% (360)
By Period
Johnson
Smith
P1
55.6%
50.2%
P2
70.5%
52.2%
P3
52.0%
52.7%
Final 5 min
69.7%
56.7%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Johnson
42.0%▼
48.0%
59.5%
Smith
40.0%▼
47.0%
51.8%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 23, 2013 | 3 | 18:01 | Neutral | Tyler Johnson |
| Mar 23, 2013 | 3 | 07:20 | Neutral | Tyler Johnson |
| Mar 23, 2013 | 1 | 19:50 | Neutral | Tyler Johnson |
| Mar 23, 2013 | 1 | 12:49 | Neutral | Tyler Johnson |
| Mar 23, 2013 | 1 | 09:41 | Offensive | Zack Smith |