Scouting Report
Aatu Raty holds a +11.2% FO% edge overall. Look for Raty on defensive-zone draws (80% H2H, 5 meetings). Raty wins 59.8% vs left-shot opponents — Nelson shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Raty 58.7% vs Nelson 48.3% (+11.2%)
H2H factor
Raty leads 8-3 in 11 meetings
Offensive zone
Raty 73.1%
Defensive zone
Raty 91.4%
Neutral zone
Raty 77.9%
Result
Aatu Raty favored at 81.8%
81.8%
18.2%
Raty
Nelson
Head-to-Head Record
8
-
3
(11 meetings)
8
3
Raty
Nelson
Last 7: Raty 6-1 Nelson
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Raty
3
2
Raty
Nelson
5 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Raty
4
1
Raty
Nelson
5 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Raty
1
0
Raty
Nelson
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Raty
Nelson
Edge
Even Strength
58.5% (866)
47.9% (9,695)
+10.6%
Power Play
72.2% (36)
54.5% (1,132)
+17.7%
Penalty Kill
63.2% (106)
43.8% (783)
+19.4%
On penalty kill, Raty has a +19.4% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Nelson shoots left. Raty is 59.8% vs left-shot opponents (666).
Raty shoots left. Nelson is 48.9% vs left-shot opponents (7,533).
Home / Away
Raty
Nelson
Home
59.6% (547)
50.0% (5,845)
Away
59.4% (461)
46.5% (5,766)
By Period
Raty
Nelson
P1
59.5%
48.7%
P2
62.8%
48.5%
P3
56.6%
47.7%
OT
53.3%
45.6%
Final 5 min
62.0%
47.8%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Raty
68.0%▲
63.5%
59.5%
Nelson
60.0%▲
54.0%
48.3%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 9, 2025 | 3 | 08:53 | Offensive | Aatu Raty |
| Nov 9, 2025 | 3 | 01:27 | Offensive | Aatu Raty |
| Nov 9, 2025 | 2 | 19:35 | Defensive | Brock Nelson |
| Nov 9, 2025 | 2 | 09:03 | Offensive | Aatu Raty |
| Nov 9, 2025 | 2 | 05:34 | Defensive | Aatu Raty |
| Nov 9, 2025 | 1 | 00:21 | Defensive | Aatu Raty |
| Nov 14, 2024 | 3 | 07:52 | Neutral | Aatu Raty |