Scouting Report
Charlie Coyle holds a +7.4% FO% edge overall. Look for Fantilli on offensive-zone draws (67% H2H, 3 meetings). Fantilli wins 42.2% vs right-shot opponents — Coyle shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Fantilli 42.0% vs Coyle 48.8% (-7.4%)
H2H factor
Not applied (5 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Coyle 52.3%
Defensive zone
Coyle 87.9%
Neutral zone
Coyle 78.6%
Result
Charlie Coyle favored at 64.7%
35.3%
64.7%
Fantilli
Coyle
Head-to-Head Record
4
-
1
(5 meetings)
4
1
Fantilli
Coyle
Last 5: Fantilli 4-1 Coyle
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Fantilli
2
1
Fantilli
Coyle
3 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Fantilli
1
0
Fantilli
Coyle
1 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Fantilli
1
0
Fantilli
Coyle
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Fantilli
Coyle
Edge
Even Strength
40.7% (934)
49.5% (576)
-8.8%
Power Play
52.1% (73)
54.2% (48)
-2.1%
Penalty Kill
16.7% (12)
43.4% (145)
-26.7%
On penalty kill, Coyle has a +26.7% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Coyle shoots right. Fantilli is 42.2% vs right-shot opponents (332).
Fantilli shoots left. Coyle is 46.6% vs left-shot opponents (594).
Home / Away
Fantilli
Coyle
Home
44.1% (488)
47.4% (409)
Away
38.6% (531)
50.0% (360)
By Period
Fantilli
Coyle
P1
42.0%
50.8%
P2
43.0%
46.0%
P3
39.3%
48.4%
OT
11.1%
64.3%
Final 5 min
38.3%
46.7%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Fantilli
50.0%▲
47.0%
41.2%
Coyle
48.0%▼
51.0%
48.6%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Apr 3, 2025 | 3 | 11:44 | Offensive | Adam Fantilli |
| Apr 3, 2025 | 2 | 05:19 | Offensive | Charlie Coyle |
| Apr 3, 2025 | 2 | 03:14 | Offensive | Adam Fantilli |
| Nov 18, 2024 | 2 | 17:52 | Neutral | Adam Fantilli |
| Nov 18, 2024 | 2 | 12:43 | Defensive | Adam Fantilli |