Scouting Report
Adam Fantilli holds a +4.5% FO% edge overall. Look for Fantilli on neutral-zone draws (57% H2H, 7 meetings). Fantilli wins 46.7% vs right-shot opponents — Bedard shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Fantilli 45.4% vs Bedard 41.3% (+4.5%)
H2H factor
Bedard leads 5-5 in 10 meetings
Offensive zone
Fantilli 67.0%
Defensive zone
Bedard 65.5%
Neutral zone
Fantilli 51.6%
Result
Connor Bedard favored at 50.3%
49.7%
50.3%
Fantilli
Bedard
Head-to-Head Record
5
-
5
(10 meetings)
5
5
Fantilli
Bedard
Last 10: Fantilli 5-5 Bedard
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Fantilli
1
0
Fantilli
Bedard
1 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Bedard
0
2
Fantilli
Bedard
2 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Fantilli
4
3
Fantilli
Bedard
7 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Fantilli
Bedard
Edge
Even Strength
44.7% (2,134)
40.1% (1,580)
+4.6%
Power Play
52.0% (204)
51.9% (77)
+0.1%
Penalty Kill
32.0% (25)
50.0% (24)
-18.0%
On penalty kill, Bedard has a +18.0% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Bedard shoots right. Fantilli is 46.7% vs right-shot opponents (794).
Fantilli shoots left. Bedard is 40.8% vs left-shot opponents (1,213).
Home / Away
Fantilli
Bedard
Home
47.3% (1,178)
43.3% (785)
Away
43.0% (1,185)
38.5% (896)
By Period
Fantilli
Bedard
P1
44.0%
39.0%
P2
46.2%
40.7%
P3
45.9%
42.6%
OT
24.1%
42.9%
Final 5 min
43.9%
44.9%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Fantilli
50.0%▲
47.0%
45.2%
Bedard
46.0%▲
42.5%
40.7%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dec 1, 2024 | 3 | 03:08 | Neutral | Adam Fantilli |
| Dec 1, 2024 | 3 | 00:00 | Neutral | Adam Fantilli |
| Dec 1, 2024 | 2 | 00:00 | Neutral | Adam Fantilli |
| Dec 1, 2024 | 1 | 06:35 | Defensive | Connor Bedard |
| Dec 1, 2024 | 1 | 06:25 | Offensive | Adam Fantilli |
| Dec 1, 2024 | 1 | 02:59 | Neutral | Connor Bedard |
| Dec 1, 2024 | 1 | 00:00 | Neutral | Adam Fantilli |
| Nov 22, 2023 | 3 | 12:13 | Neutral | Connor Bedard |
| Nov 22, 2023 | 2 | 16:28 | Neutral | Connor Bedard |
| Nov 22, 2023 | 2 | 01:00 | Defensive | Connor Bedard |