Scouting Report
Derek Ryan holds a +19.2% FO% edge overall. Look for Ryan on defensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 3 meetings). Fantilli wins 42.2% vs right-shot opponents — Ryan shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Fantilli 42.0% vs Ryan 57.4% (-19.2%)
H2H factor
Not applied (5 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Fantilli 91.0%
Defensive zone
Fantilli 76.5%
Neutral zone
Fantilli 88.9%
Result
Adam Fantilli favored at 81.5%
81.5%
18.5%
Fantilli
Ryan
Head-to-Head Record
0
-
5
(5 meetings)
0
5
Fantilli
Ryan
Last 5: Fantilli 0-5 Ryan
Zone Breakdown
Defensive Zone
Edge: Ryan
0
3
Fantilli
Ryan
3 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Ryan
0
2
Fantilli
Ryan
2 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Fantilli
Ryan
Edge
Even Strength
40.7% (934)
61.4% (220)
-20.7%
Power Play
52.1% (73)
100.0% (1)
-47.9%
Penalty Kill
16.7% (12)
51.7% (29)
-35.0%
On power play, Ryan has a +47.9% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Ryan shoots right. Fantilli is 42.2% vs right-shot opponents (332).
Fantilli shoots left. Ryan is 61.3% vs left-shot opponents (194).
Home / Away
Fantilli
Ryan
Home
44.1% (488)
64.2% (137)
Away
38.6% (531)
55.8% (113)
By Period
Fantilli
Ryan
P1
42.0%
58.9%
P2
43.0%
62.8%
P3
39.3%
59.3%
Final 5 min
38.3%
51.6%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Fantilli
50.0%▲
47.0%
41.2%
Ryan
52.0%▼
60.0%
60.4%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dec 5, 2024 | 3 | 12:30 | Defensive | Derek Ryan |
| Dec 5, 2024 | 3 | 03:25 | Defensive | Derek Ryan |
| Dec 5, 2024 | 1 | 02:31 | Neutral | Derek Ryan |
| Oct 28, 2024 | 3 | 12:12 | Defensive | Derek Ryan |
| Oct 28, 2024 | 2 | 09:14 | Neutral | Derek Ryan |