Scouting Report
Lars Eller holds a +5.3% FO% edge overall. Look for Eller on defensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 5 meetings). Fantilli wins 44.4% vs left-shot opponents — Eller shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Fantilli 45.4% vs Eller 50.5% (-5.3%)
H2H factor
Eller leads 12-3 in 15 meetings
Offensive zone
Fantilli 93.9%
Defensive zone
Fantilli 67.6%
Neutral zone
Fantilli 79.1%
Result
Adam Fantilli favored at 79.2%
79.2%
20.8%
Fantilli
Eller
Head-to-Head Record
3
-
12
(15 meetings)
3
12
Fantilli
Eller
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Eller
1
3
Fantilli
Eller
4 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Eller
0
5
Fantilli
Eller
5 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Eller
2
4
Fantilli
Eller
6 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Fantilli
Eller
Edge
Even Strength
44.7% (2,134)
51.1% (10,296)
-6.4%
Power Play
52.0% (204)
52.8% (621)
-0.8%
Penalty Kill
32.0% (25)
46.7% (1,751)
-14.7%
On penalty kill, Eller has a +14.7% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Eller shoots left. Fantilli is 44.4% vs left-shot opponents (1,569).
Fantilli shoots left. Eller is 50.9% vs left-shot opponents (8,123).
Home / Away
Fantilli
Eller
Home
47.3% (1,178)
51.4% (6,118)
Away
43.0% (1,185)
49.7% (6,578)
By Period
Fantilli
Eller
P1
44.0%
51.2%
P2
46.2%
50.1%
P3
45.9%
50.2%
OT
24.1%
56.7%
Final 5 min
43.9%
49.6%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Fantilli
50.0%▲
47.0%
45.2%
Eller
50.0%▼
54.0%
50.5%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dec 11, 2025 | 1 | 18:04 | Neutral | Adam Fantilli |
| Nov 14, 2023 | 3 | 11:45 | Neutral | Lars Eller |
| Nov 14, 2023 | 2 | 01:41 | Defensive | Lars Eller |