Scouting Report
Adam Fantilli holds a +5.6% FO% edge overall. Look for Carlsson on defensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 3 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Fantilli 50.0% vs Carlsson 45.0% (+5.6%)
H2H factor
Carlsson leads 7-4 in 11 meetings
Offensive zone
Carlsson 54.3%
Defensive zone
Carlsson 79.1%
Neutral zone
Carlsson 63.1%
Result
Leo Carlsson favored at 65.8%
34.2%
65.8%
Fantilli
Carlsson
Head-to-Head Record
4
-
7
(11 meetings)
4
7
Fantilli
Carlsson
Last 10: Fantilli 3-7 Carlsson
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Fantilli
2
0
Fantilli
Carlsson
2 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Carlsson
0
3
Fantilli
Carlsson
3 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Carlsson
2
4
Fantilli
Carlsson
6 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Fantilli
Carlsson
Edge
Even Strength
49.6% (842)
45.5% (661)
+4.1%
Power Play
52.5% (99)
46.3% (82)
+6.2%
Penalty Kill
54.5% (11)
33.3% (84)
+21.2%
On penalty kill, Fantilli has a +21.2% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Carlsson shoots left. Fantilli is 47.9% vs left-shot opponents (622).
Fantilli shoots left. Carlsson is 43.0% vs left-shot opponents (540).
Home / Away
Fantilli
Carlsson
Home
50.8% (472)
42.5% (428)
Away
49.2% (480)
46.4% (399)
By Period
Fantilli
Carlsson
P1
47.8%
45.4%
P2
52.7%
39.7%
P3
50.0%
48.5%
OT
30.0%
41.7%
Final 5 min
51.1%
39.0%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Fantilli
50.0%▲
47.0%
50.0%
Carlsson
38.0%▼
39.5%
44.4%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dec 20, 2025 | 3 | 19:51 | Defensive | Leo Carlsson |
| Dec 20, 2025 | 3 | 19:41 | Offensive | Adam Fantilli |
| Dec 20, 2025 | 3 | 13:14 | Defensive | Leo Carlsson |
| Dec 20, 2025 | 3 | 00:00 | Neutral | Leo Carlsson |
| Dec 20, 2025 | 2 | 04:07 | Neutral | Leo Carlsson |
| Dec 20, 2025 | 2 | 03:50 | Offensive | Adam Fantilli |
| Dec 20, 2025 | 2 | 00:00 | Neutral | Leo Carlsson |
| Dec 20, 2025 | 1 | 06:28 | Defensive | Leo Carlsson |
| Dec 20, 2025 | 1 | 03:00 | Neutral | Leo Carlsson |
| Dec 20, 2025 | 1 | 00:00 | Neutral | Adam Fantilli |
| Dec 16, 2025 | OT | 00:00 | Neutral | Adam Fantilli |