Scouting Report
Adam Fantilli holds a +4.4% FO% edge overall. Look for Carlsson on defensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 3 meetings). Fantilli wins 44.4% vs left-shot opponents — Carlsson shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Fantilli 45.4% vs Carlsson 41.2% (+4.4%)
H2H factor
Carlsson leads 8-4 in 12 meetings
Offensive zone
Carlsson 61.4%
Defensive zone
Carlsson 75.8%
Neutral zone
Carlsson 67.4%
Result
Leo Carlsson favored at 68.0%
32.0%
68.0%
Fantilli
Carlsson
Head-to-Head Record
4
-
8
(12 meetings)
4
8
Fantilli
Carlsson
Last 10: Fantilli 3-7 Carlsson
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Fantilli
2
1
Fantilli
Carlsson
3 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Carlsson
0
3
Fantilli
Carlsson
3 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Carlsson
2
4
Fantilli
Carlsson
6 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Fantilli
Carlsson
Edge
Even Strength
44.7% (2,134)
41.0% (1,844)
+3.7%
Power Play
52.0% (204)
42.9% (154)
+9.1%
Penalty Kill
32.0% (25)
35.0% (120)
-3.0%
On power play, Fantilli has a +9.1% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Carlsson shoots left. Fantilli is 44.4% vs left-shot opponents (1,569).
Fantilli shoots left. Carlsson is 40.3% vs left-shot opponents (1,479).
Home / Away
Fantilli
Carlsson
Home
47.3% (1,178)
42.2% (1,044)
Away
43.0% (1,185)
39.4% (1,074)
By Period
Fantilli
Carlsson
P1
44.0%
43.3%
P2
46.2%
36.5%
P3
45.9%
43.2%
OT
24.1%
40.7%
Final 5 min
43.9%
40.0%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Fantilli
50.0%▲
47.0%
45.2%
Carlsson
38.0%▼
39.5%
40.8%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dec 20, 2025 | 3 | 19:51 | Defensive | Leo Carlsson |
| Dec 20, 2025 | 3 | 19:41 | Offensive | Adam Fantilli |
| Dec 20, 2025 | 3 | 13:14 | Defensive | Leo Carlsson |
| Dec 20, 2025 | 3 | 00:00 | Neutral | Leo Carlsson |
| Dec 20, 2025 | 2 | 04:07 | Neutral | Leo Carlsson |
| Dec 20, 2025 | 2 | 03:50 | Offensive | Adam Fantilli |
| Dec 20, 2025 | 2 | 00:00 | Neutral | Leo Carlsson |
| Dec 20, 2025 | 1 | 06:28 | Defensive | Leo Carlsson |
| Dec 20, 2025 | 1 | 03:00 | Neutral | Leo Carlsson |
| Dec 20, 2025 | 1 | 00:00 | Neutral | Adam Fantilli |
| Dec 16, 2025 | OT | 00:00 | Neutral | Adam Fantilli |
| Dec 14, 2024 | 2 | 08:20 | Offensive | Leo Carlsson |