Scouting Report
Morgan Frost holds a +4.9% FO% edge overall.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Fantilli 50.6% vs Frost 54.9% (-4.9%)
H2H factor
Not applied (1 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Frost 64.5%
Defensive zone
Frost 63.3%
Neutral zone
Frost 60.2%
Result
Morgan Frost favored at 63.3%
36.7%
63.3%
Fantilli
Frost
Head-to-Head Record
1
-
0
(1 meetings)
1
0
Fantilli
Frost
Zone Breakdown
Defensive Zone
Edge: Fantilli
1
0
Fantilli
Frost
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Fantilli
Frost
Edge
Even Strength
50.0% (638)
54.1% (521)
-4.1%
Power Play
56.9% (58)
59.6% (141)
-2.7%
Penalty Kill
60.0% (10)
100.0% (5)
-40.0%
On penalty kill, Frost has a +40.0% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Frost shoots left. Fantilli is 49.5% vs left-shot opponents (465).
Fantilli shoots left. Frost is 55.5% vs left-shot opponents (458).
Home / Away
Fantilli
Frost
Home
53.0% (334)
57.2% (339)
Away
48.7% (372)
54.0% (328)
By Period
Fantilli
Frost
P1
48.7%
58.2%
P2
53.9%
55.6%
P3
49.8%
52.9%
OT
28.6%
60.0%
Final 5 min
54.1%
52.3%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Fantilli
58.0%▲
51.0%
50.7%
Frost
74.0%▲
55.0%
55.6%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 13, 2026 | 1 | 18:22 | Defensive | Adam Fantilli |