Scouting Report
Morgan Frost holds a +6.3% FO% edge overall.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Fantilli 50.0% vs Frost 55.7% (-6.3%)
H2H factor
Not applied (1 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Frost 65.3%
Defensive zone
Frost 69.5%
Neutral zone
Frost 60.5%
Result
Morgan Frost favored at 69.5%
30.5%
69.5%
Fantilli
Frost
Head-to-Head Record
1
-
0
(1 meetings)
1
0
Fantilli
Frost
Zone Breakdown
Defensive Zone
Edge: Fantilli
1
0
Fantilli
Frost
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Fantilli
Frost
Edge
Even Strength
49.6% (842)
54.9% (701)
-5.3%
Power Play
52.5% (99)
60.8% (166)
-8.3%
Penalty Kill
54.5% (11)
100.0% (5)
-45.5%
On penalty kill, Frost has a +45.5% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Frost shoots left. Fantilli is 47.9% vs left-shot opponents (622).
Fantilli shoots left. Frost is 57.0% vs left-shot opponents (586).
Home / Away
Fantilli
Frost
Home
50.8% (472)
56.0% (443)
Away
49.2% (480)
56.6% (429)
By Period
Fantilli
Frost
P1
47.8%
58.9%
P2
52.7%
55.3%
P3
50.0%
54.0%
OT
30.0%
70.0%
Final 5 min
51.1%
51.4%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Fantilli
50.0%▲
47.0%
50.0%
Frost
62.0%▲
59.0%
56.3%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 13, 2026 | 1 | 18:22 | Defensive | Adam Fantilli |