Scouting Report
Morgan Frost holds a +5.1% FO% edge overall. Look for Frost on offensive-zone draws (75% H2H, 4 meetings). Fantilli wins 44.4% vs left-shot opponents — Frost shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Fantilli 45.4% vs Frost 50.3% (-5.1%)
H2H factor
Frost leads 6-6 in 12 meetings
Offensive zone
Frost 52.6%
Defensive zone
Frost 53.1%
Neutral zone
Frost 52.1%
Result
Morgan Frost favored at 52.6%
47.4%
52.6%
Fantilli
Frost
Head-to-Head Record
6
-
6
(12 meetings)
6
6
Fantilli
Frost
Last 10: Fantilli 4-6 Frost
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Frost
1
3
Fantilli
Frost
4 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Fantilli
3
1
Fantilli
Frost
4 total
Neutral Zone
Even
2
2
Fantilli
Frost
4 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Fantilli
Frost
Edge
Even Strength
44.7% (2,134)
49.4% (3,598)
-4.7%
Power Play
52.0% (204)
55.5% (625)
-3.5%
Penalty Kill
32.0% (25)
52.8% (36)
-20.8%
On penalty kill, Frost has a +20.8% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Frost shoots left. Fantilli is 44.4% vs left-shot opponents (1,569).
Fantilli shoots left. Frost is 50.6% vs left-shot opponents (2,782).
Home / Away
Fantilli
Frost
Home
47.3% (1,178)
51.0% (2,047)
Away
43.0% (1,185)
49.7% (2,212)
By Period
Fantilli
Frost
P1
44.0%
50.8%
P2
46.2%
51.1%
P3
45.9%
48.5%
OT
24.1%
66.7%
Final 5 min
43.9%
48.7%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Fantilli
50.0%▲
47.0%
45.2%
Frost
62.0%▲
59.0%
50.3%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 13, 2026 | 1 | 18:22 | Defensive | Adam Fantilli |
| Jan 14, 2025 | OT | 00:00 | Neutral | Morgan Frost |
| Jan 14, 2025 | 3 | 00:19 | Offensive | Morgan Frost |
| Jan 14, 2025 | 2 | 00:34 | Defensive | Adam Fantilli |
| Dec 10, 2024 | 3 | 12:34 | Defensive | Morgan Frost |
| Dec 10, 2024 | 3 | 01:41 | Defensive | Adam Fantilli |
| Dec 10, 2024 | 2 | 01:46 | Offensive | Morgan Frost |
| Oct 12, 2023 | 3 | 15:37 | Offensive | Morgan Frost |
| Oct 12, 2023 | 3 | 09:17 | Neutral | Adam Fantilli |
| Oct 12, 2023 | 2 | 04:49 | Neutral | Morgan Frost |
| Oct 12, 2023 | 2 | 02:19 | Offensive | Adam Fantilli |
| Oct 12, 2023 | 1 | 12:43 | Neutral | Adam Fantilli |