Scouting Report
Morgan Frost holds a +5.1% FO% edge overall. Look for Frost on offensive-zone draws (75% H2H, 4 meetings). Fantilli wins 44.5% vs left-shot opponents — Frost shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Fantilli 45.1% vs Frost 49.9% (-5.1%)
H2H factor
Frost leads 6-6 in 12 meetings
Offensive zone
Frost 54.8%
Defensive zone
Frost 53.9%
Neutral zone
Frost 52.9%
Result
Morgan Frost favored at 53.9%
46.1%
53.9%
Fantilli
Frost
Head-to-Head Record
6
-
6
(12 meetings)
6
6
Fantilli
Frost
Last 10: Fantilli 4-6 Frost
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Frost
1
3
Fantilli
Frost
4 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Fantilli
3
1
Fantilli
Frost
4 total
Neutral Zone
Even
2
2
Fantilli
Frost
4 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Fantilli
Frost
Edge
Even Strength
44.2% (1,930)
49.0% (3,418)
-4.8%
Power Play
53.4% (163)
55.0% (600)
-1.6%
Penalty Kill
33.3% (24)
52.8% (36)
-19.5%
On penalty kill, Frost has a +19.5% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Frost shoots left. Fantilli is 44.5% vs left-shot opponents (1,412).
Fantilli shoots left. Frost is 50.0% vs left-shot opponents (2,654).
Home / Away
Fantilli
Frost
Home
47.5% (1,040)
50.9% (1,943)
Away
42.2% (1,077)
49.0% (2,111)
By Period
Fantilli
Frost
P1
43.9%
50.3%
P2
45.9%
51.0%
P3
45.4%
48.0%
OT
23.1%
64.5%
Final 5 min
43.9%
48.7%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Fantilli
58.0%▲
51.0%
44.8%
Frost
74.0%▲
55.0%
49.9%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 13, 2026 | 1 | 18:22 | Defensive | Adam Fantilli |
| Jan 14, 2025 | OT | 00:00 | Neutral | Morgan Frost |
| Jan 14, 2025 | 3 | 00:19 | Offensive | Morgan Frost |
| Jan 14, 2025 | 2 | 00:34 | Defensive | Adam Fantilli |
| Dec 10, 2024 | 3 | 12:34 | Defensive | Morgan Frost |
| Dec 10, 2024 | 3 | 01:41 | Defensive | Adam Fantilli |
| Dec 10, 2024 | 2 | 01:46 | Offensive | Morgan Frost |
| Oct 12, 2023 | 3 | 15:37 | Offensive | Morgan Frost |
| Oct 12, 2023 | 3 | 09:17 | Neutral | Adam Fantilli |
| Oct 12, 2023 | 2 | 04:49 | Neutral | Morgan Frost |
| Oct 12, 2023 | 2 | 02:19 | Offensive | Adam Fantilli |
| Oct 12, 2023 | 1 | 12:43 | Neutral | Adam Fantilli |