Scouting Report
Adam Fantilli holds a +1.0% FO% edge overall. Look for Fantilli on offensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 4 meetings). Fantilli wins 53.9% vs right-shot opponents — Dowd shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Fantilli 50.0% vs Dowd 49.1% (+1.0%)
H2H factor
Not applied (5 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Fantilli 91.7%
Defensive zone
Dowd 81.5%
Neutral zone
Fantilli 61.2%
Result
Adam Fantilli favored at 85.6%
85.6%
14.4%
Fantilli
Dowd
Head-to-Head Record
5
-
0
(5 meetings)
5
0
Fantilli
Dowd
Last 5: Fantilli 5-0 Dowd
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Fantilli
4
0
Fantilli
Dowd
4 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Fantilli
1
0
Fantilli
Dowd
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Fantilli
Dowd
Edge
Even Strength
49.6% (842)
51.7% (644)
-2.1%
Power Play
52.5% (99)
0.0% (2)
+52.5%
Penalty Kill
54.5% (11)
41.6% (221)
+12.9%
On power play, Fantilli has a +52.5% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Dowd shoots right. Fantilli is 53.9% vs right-shot opponents (330).
Fantilli shoots left. Dowd is 47.7% vs left-shot opponents (547).
Home / Away
Fantilli
Dowd
Home
50.8% (472)
48.6% (451)
Away
49.2% (480)
49.5% (416)
By Period
Fantilli
Dowd
P1
47.8%
49.1%
P2
52.7%
47.3%
P3
50.0%
51.4%
OT
30.0%
30.0%
Final 5 min
51.1%
52.1%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Fantilli
50.0%▲
47.0%
50.0%
Dowd
50.0%▲
48.0%
49.0%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dec 7, 2025 | 2 | 19:13 | Offensive | Adam Fantilli |
| Dec 7, 2025 | 2 | 14:44 | Offensive | Adam Fantilli |
| Oct 24, 2025 | 3 | 10:20 | Neutral | Adam Fantilli |
| Oct 24, 2025 | 2 | 14:57 | Offensive | Adam Fantilli |
| Oct 24, 2025 | 1 | 19:30 | Offensive | Adam Fantilli |