Scouting Report
Nic Dowd holds a +5.5% FO% edge overall. Look for Fantilli on offensive-zone draws (80% H2H, 15 meetings). Fantilli wins 46.7% vs right-shot opponents — Dowd shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Fantilli 45.4% vs Dowd 50.7% (-5.5%)
H2H factor
Dowd leads 18-17 in 35 meetings
Offensive zone
Fantilli 83.4%
Defensive zone
Dowd 58.2%
Neutral zone
Fantilli 52.9%
Result
Adam Fantilli favored at 63.1%
63.1%
36.9%
Fantilli
Dowd
Head-to-Head Record
17
-
18
(35 meetings)
17
18
Fantilli
Dowd
Last 10: Fantilli 7-3 Dowd
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Fantilli
12
3
Fantilli
Dowd
15 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Dowd
1
8
Fantilli
Dowd
9 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Dowd
4
7
Fantilli
Dowd
11 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Fantilli
Dowd
Edge
Even Strength
44.7% (2,134)
52.4% (6,009)
-7.7%
Power Play
52.0% (204)
56.1% (164)
-4.1%
Penalty Kill
32.0% (25)
44.1% (1,635)
-12.1%
On penalty kill, Dowd has a +12.1% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Dowd shoots right. Fantilli is 46.7% vs right-shot opponents (794).
Fantilli shoots left. Dowd is 50.5% vs left-shot opponents (5,134).
Home / Away
Fantilli
Dowd
Home
47.3% (1,178)
51.9% (3,897)
Away
43.0% (1,185)
49.5% (3,912)
By Period
Fantilli
Dowd
P1
44.0%
51.7%
P2
46.2%
50.4%
P3
45.9%
50.3%
OT
24.1%
45.9%
Final 5 min
43.9%
50.5%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Fantilli
50.0%▲
47.0%
45.2%
Dowd
50.0%▲
48.0%
50.7%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dec 7, 2025 | 2 | 19:13 | Offensive | Adam Fantilli |
| Dec 7, 2025 | 2 | 14:44 | Offensive | Adam Fantilli |
| Oct 24, 2025 | 3 | 10:20 | Neutral | Adam Fantilli |
| Oct 24, 2025 | 2 | 14:57 | Offensive | Adam Fantilli |
| Oct 24, 2025 | 1 | 19:30 | Offensive | Adam Fantilli |
| Dec 12, 2024 | 2 | 05:38 | Offensive | Nic Dowd |
| Dec 12, 2024 | 2 | 05:25 | Offensive | Nic Dowd |
| Dec 12, 2024 | 1 | 16:03 | Offensive | Adam Fantilli |
| Nov 2, 2024 | 2 | 14:36 | Neutral | Adam Fantilli |
| Nov 2, 2024 | 2 | 07:50 | Neutral | Nic Dowd |
| Nov 2, 2024 | 2 | 07:42 | Defensive | Nic Dowd |
| Nov 2, 2024 | 2 | 00:37 | Offensive | Adam Fantilli |
| Nov 2, 2024 | 1 | 18:33 | Offensive | Adam Fantilli |
| Nov 2, 2024 | 1 | 06:51 | Defensive | Nic Dowd |
| Nov 2, 2024 | 1 | 03:36 | Neutral | Nic Dowd |
| Dec 21, 2023 | 3 | 19:40 | Defensive | Nic Dowd |
| Dec 21, 2023 | 3 | 07:50 | Defensive | Nic Dowd |
| Dec 21, 2023 | 2 | 17:45 | Offensive | Adam Fantilli |
| Dec 21, 2023 | 2 | 17:40 | Offensive | Adam Fantilli |
| Dec 21, 2023 | 2 | 09:33 | Defensive | Adam Fantilli |