Scouting Report
Nic Dowd holds a +4.5% FO% edge overall. Look for Fantilli on offensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 4 meetings). Fantilli wins 40.2% vs right-shot opponents — Dowd shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Fantilli 44.9% vs Dowd 48.3% (-4.5%)
H2H factor
Dowd leads 5-5 in 10 meetings
Offensive zone
Fantilli 90.1%
Defensive zone
Dowd 95.2%
Neutral zone
Dowd 53.6%
Result
Nic Dowd favored at 61.1%
38.9%
61.1%
Fantilli
Dowd
Head-to-Head Record
5
-
5
(10 meetings)
5
5
Fantilli
Dowd
Last 10: Fantilli 5-5 Dowd
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Fantilli
4
0
Fantilli
Dowd
4 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Dowd
1
5
Fantilli
Dowd
6 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Fantilli
Dowd
Edge
Even Strength
43.3% (358)
49.2% (778)
-5.9%
Power Play
50.0% (32)
58.3% (12)
-8.3%
Penalty Kill
0.0% (2)
44.0% (234)
-44.0%
On penalty kill, Dowd has a +44.0% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Dowd shoots right. Fantilli is 40.2% vs right-shot opponents (132).
Fantilli shoots left. Dowd is 48.0% vs left-shot opponents (698).
Home / Away
Fantilli
Dowd
Home
46.8% (218)
46.3% (492)
Away
39.7% (174)
49.8% (532)
By Period
Fantilli
Dowd
P1
40.3%
49.1%
P2
38.1%
48.2%
P3
54.1%
46.9%
OT
30.0%
71.4%
Final 5 min
38.9%
45.7%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Fantilli
50.0%▲
47.0%
43.6%
Dowd
50.0%▲
48.0%
48.1%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dec 21, 2023 | 3 | 19:40 | Defensive | Nic Dowd |
| Dec 21, 2023 | 3 | 07:50 | Defensive | Nic Dowd |
| Dec 21, 2023 | 2 | 17:45 | Offensive | Adam Fantilli |
| Dec 21, 2023 | 2 | 17:40 | Offensive | Adam Fantilli |
| Dec 21, 2023 | 2 | 09:33 | Defensive | Adam Fantilli |
| Nov 18, 2023 | 3 | 17:26 | Offensive | Adam Fantilli |
| Nov 18, 2023 | 3 | 08:05 | Defensive | Nic Dowd |
| Nov 18, 2023 | 2 | 18:41 | Defensive | Nic Dowd |
| Nov 18, 2023 | 2 | 11:40 | Offensive | Adam Fantilli |
| Nov 18, 2023 | 1 | 05:00 | Defensive | Nic Dowd |