Scouting Report
Ridly Greig holds a +3.5% FO% edge overall. Look for Greig on defensive-zone draws (60% H2H, 5 meetings). Fantilli wins 44.4% vs left-shot opponents — Greig shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Fantilli 45.4% vs Greig 48.8% (-3.5%)
H2H factor
Not applied (9 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Fantilli 78.1%
Defensive zone
Greig 74.6%
Neutral zone
Fantilli 55.7%
Result
Ridly Greig favored at 56.1%
43.9%
56.1%
Fantilli
Greig
Head-to-Head Record
4
-
5
(9 meetings)
4
5
Fantilli
Greig
Last 9: Fantilli 4-5 Greig
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Even
1
1
Fantilli
Greig
2 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Greig
2
3
Fantilli
Greig
5 total
Neutral Zone
Even
1
1
Fantilli
Greig
2 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Fantilli
Greig
Edge
Even Strength
44.7% (2,134)
48.5% (1,133)
-3.8%
Power Play
52.0% (204)
56.8% (74)
-4.8%
Penalty Kill
32.0% (25)
46.5% (172)
-14.5%
On penalty kill, Greig has a +14.5% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Greig shoots left. Fantilli is 44.4% vs left-shot opponents (1,569).
Fantilli shoots left. Greig is 44.8% vs left-shot opponents (745).
Home / Away
Fantilli
Greig
Home
47.3% (1,178)
49.8% (681)
Away
43.0% (1,185)
47.7% (698)
By Period
Fantilli
Greig
P1
44.0%
46.3%
P2
46.2%
51.2%
P3
45.9%
48.8%
OT
24.1%
28.6%
Final 5 min
43.9%
53.5%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Fantilli
50.0%▲
47.0%
45.2%
Greig
52.0%▲
48.5%
48.7%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 20, 2026 | 2 | 09:03 | Defensive | Ridly Greig |
| Dec 29, 2025 | 3 | 00:00 | Neutral | Ridly Greig |
| Dec 29, 2025 | 1 | 14:13 | Offensive | Adam Fantilli |
| Dec 11, 2025 | 3 | 08:33 | Offensive | Ridly Greig |
| Dec 11, 2025 | 2 | 09:20 | Defensive | Ridly Greig |
| Dec 11, 2025 | 1 | 13:09 | Defensive | Ridly Greig |
| Dec 11, 2025 | 1 | 06:58 | Neutral | Adam Fantilli |
| Apr 6, 2025 | 3 | 06:10 | Defensive | Adam Fantilli |
| Apr 6, 2025 | 1 | 09:32 | Defensive | Adam Fantilli |