Scouting Report
Adam Fantilli holds a +6.4% FO% edge overall. Look for Nosek on defensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 3 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Fantilli 50.0% vs Nosek 46.9% (+6.4%)
H2H factor
Not applied (9 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Fantilli 60.2%
Defensive zone
Nosek 81.1%
Neutral zone
Nosek 62.0%
Result
Tomas Nosek favored at 60.9%
39.1%
60.9%
Fantilli
Nosek
Head-to-Head Record
2
-
7
(9 meetings)
2
7
Fantilli
Nosek
Last 9: Fantilli 2-7 Nosek
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Nosek
1
2
Fantilli
Nosek
3 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Nosek
0
3
Fantilli
Nosek
3 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Nosek
1
2
Fantilli
Nosek
3 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Fantilli
Nosek
Edge
Even Strength
49.6% (842)
48.5% (66)
+1.1%
Power Play
52.5% (99)
100.0% (1)
-47.5%
Penalty Kill
54.5% (11)
29.6% (27)
+24.9%
On power play, Nosek has a +47.5% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Nosek shoots left. Fantilli is 47.9% vs left-shot opponents (622).
Fantilli shoots left. Nosek is 46.8% vs left-shot opponents (62).
Home / Away
Fantilli
Nosek
Home
50.8% (472)
44.0% (25)
Away
49.2% (480)
43.5% (69)
By Period
Fantilli
Nosek
P1
47.8%
46.4%
P2
52.7%
34.2%
P3
50.0%
53.6%
Final 5 min
51.1%
41.7%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Fantilli
50.0%▲
47.0%
50.0%
Nosek
46.0%▼
49.0%
43.6%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 12, 2026 | 3 | 18:12 | Defensive | Tomas Nosek |
| Mar 12, 2026 | 3 | 01:28 | Neutral | Adam Fantilli |
| Mar 12, 2026 | 2 | 11:56 | Defensive | Tomas Nosek |
| Mar 12, 2026 | 1 | 17:13 | Defensive | Tomas Nosek |
| Mar 5, 2026 | 3 | 01:41 | Neutral | Tomas Nosek |
| Mar 5, 2026 | 2 | 10:50 | Neutral | Tomas Nosek |
| Mar 5, 2026 | 1 | 15:52 | Offensive | Tomas Nosek |
| Mar 5, 2026 | 1 | 10:46 | Offensive | Tomas Nosek |
| Mar 5, 2026 | 1 | 03:44 | Offensive | Adam Fantilli |