Scouting Report
Tomas Nosek holds a +8.5% FO% edge overall. Look for Nosek on defensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 3 meetings). Fantilli wins 44.4% vs left-shot opponents — Nosek shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Fantilli 45.4% vs Nosek 53.6% (-8.5%)
H2H factor
Not applied (9 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Fantilli 90.0%
Defensive zone
Fantilli 62.7%
Neutral zone
Fantilli 73.8%
Result
Adam Fantilli favored at 75.5%
75.5%
24.5%
Fantilli
Nosek
Head-to-Head Record
2
-
7
(9 meetings)
2
7
Fantilli
Nosek
Last 9: Fantilli 2-7 Nosek
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Nosek
1
2
Fantilli
Nosek
3 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Nosek
0
3
Fantilli
Nosek
3 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Nosek
1
2
Fantilli
Nosek
3 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Fantilli
Nosek
Edge
Even Strength
44.7% (2,134)
54.9% (2,674)
-10.2%
Power Play
52.0% (204)
44.7% (47)
+7.3%
Penalty Kill
32.0% (25)
47.4% (424)
-15.4%
On penalty kill, Nosek has a +15.4% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Nosek shoots left. Fantilli is 44.4% vs left-shot opponents (1,569).
Fantilli shoots left. Nosek is 54.5% vs left-shot opponents (1,942).
Home / Away
Fantilli
Nosek
Home
47.3% (1,178)
52.7% (1,631)
Away
43.0% (1,185)
54.8% (1,514)
By Period
Fantilli
Nosek
P1
44.0%
52.3%
P2
46.2%
54.0%
P3
45.9%
54.6%
OT
24.1%
75.0%
Final 5 min
43.9%
52.3%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Fantilli
50.0%▲
47.0%
45.2%
Nosek
46.0%▼
49.0%
53.7%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 12, 2026 | 3 | 18:12 | Defensive | Tomas Nosek |
| Mar 12, 2026 | 3 | 01:28 | Neutral | Adam Fantilli |
| Mar 12, 2026 | 2 | 11:56 | Defensive | Tomas Nosek |
| Mar 12, 2026 | 1 | 17:13 | Defensive | Tomas Nosek |
| Mar 5, 2026 | 3 | 01:41 | Neutral | Tomas Nosek |
| Mar 5, 2026 | 2 | 10:50 | Neutral | Tomas Nosek |
| Mar 5, 2026 | 1 | 15:52 | Offensive | Tomas Nosek |
| Mar 5, 2026 | 1 | 10:46 | Offensive | Tomas Nosek |
| Mar 5, 2026 | 1 | 03:44 | Offensive | Adam Fantilli |