Scouting Report
Adam Fantilli holds a +8.2% FO% edge overall. Look for Novak on offensive-zone draws (67% H2H, 3 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Fantilli 50.0% vs Novak 43.4% (+8.2%)
H2H factor
Not applied (7 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Novak 55.4%
Defensive zone
Novak 56.7%
Neutral zone
Novak 53.6%
Result
Tommy Novak favored at 55.2%
44.8%
55.2%
Fantilli
Novak
Head-to-Head Record
3
-
4
(7 meetings)
3
4
Fantilli
Novak
Last 7: Fantilli 3-4 Novak
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Novak
1
2
Fantilli
Novak
3 total
Defensive Zone
Even
1
1
Fantilli
Novak
2 total
Neutral Zone
Even
1
1
Fantilli
Novak
2 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Fantilli
Novak
Edge
Even Strength
49.6% (842)
41.4% (379)
+8.2%
Power Play
52.5% (99)
46.9% (32)
+5.6%
On even strength, Fantilli has a +8.2% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Novak shoots left. Fantilli is 47.9% vs left-shot opponents (622).
Fantilli shoots left. Novak is 41.7% vs left-shot opponents (271).
Home / Away
Fantilli
Novak
Home
50.8% (472)
42.6% (195)
Away
49.2% (480)
41.2% (216)
By Period
Fantilli
Novak
P1
47.8%
42.4%
P2
52.7%
39.2%
P3
50.0%
44.7%
OT
30.0%
33.3%
Final 5 min
51.1%
40.4%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Fantilli
50.0%▲
47.0%
50.0%
Novak
40.0%▼
42.0%
41.8%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 17, 2026 | 3 | 19:25 | Neutral | Adam Fantilli |
| Jan 17, 2026 | 3 | 16:32 | Offensive | Tommy Novak |
| Jan 17, 2026 | 2 | 01:10 | Offensive | Adam Fantilli |
| Jan 4, 2026 | 3 | 17:14 | Neutral | Tommy Novak |
| Nov 28, 2025 | 3 | 07:41 | Defensive | Adam Fantilli |
| Oct 25, 2025 | 2 | 13:28 | Offensive | Tommy Novak |
| Oct 25, 2025 | 1 | 11:45 | Defensive | Tommy Novak |