Scouting Report
Tommy Novak holds a +1.5% FO% edge overall. Fantilli wins 40.8% vs left-shot opponents — Novak shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Fantilli 42.0% vs Novak 45.0% (-1.5%)
H2H factor
Not applied (2 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Fantilli 57.5%
Defensive zone
Fantilli 65.8%
Neutral zone
Fantilli 58.2%
Result
Adam Fantilli favored at 57.8%
57.8%
42.2%
Fantilli
Novak
Head-to-Head Record
0
-
2
(2 meetings)
0
2
Fantilli
Novak
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Novak
0
1
Fantilli
Novak
1 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Novak
0
1
Fantilli
Novak
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Fantilli
Novak
Edge
Even Strength
40.7% (934)
42.9% (198)
-2.2%
Power Play
52.1% (73)
40.9% (22)
+11.2%
On power play, Fantilli has a +11.2% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Novak shoots left. Fantilli is 40.8% vs left-shot opponents (687).
Fantilli shoots left. Novak is 45.2% vs left-shot opponents (126).
Home / Away
Fantilli
Novak
Home
44.1% (488)
40.9% (110)
Away
38.6% (531)
44.5% (110)
By Period
Fantilli
Novak
P1
42.0%
39.1%
P2
43.0%
43.9%
P3
39.3%
44.9%
OT
11.1%
100.0%
Final 5 min
38.3%
25.5%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Fantilli
50.0%▲
47.0%
41.2%
Novak
40.0%▼
42.0%
42.7%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 26, 2024 | 2 | 05:23 | Neutral | Tommy Novak |
| Oct 26, 2024 | 1 | 11:46 | Offensive | Tommy Novak |