Scouting Report
Adam Fantilli holds a +6.2% FO% edge overall. Look for Fantilli on defensive-zone draws (67% H2H, 3 meetings). Fantilli wins 44.3% vs left-shot opponents — Zegras shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Fantilli 45.3% vs Zegras 39.5% (+6.2%)
H2H factor
Not applied (5 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Fantilli 77.5%
Defensive zone
Fantilli 86.7%
Neutral zone
Fantilli 84.3%
Result
Adam Fantilli favored at 85.7%
85.7%
14.3%
Fantilli
Zegras
Head-to-Head Record
4
-
1
(5 meetings)
4
1
Fantilli
Zegras
Last 5: Fantilli 4-1 Zegras
Zone Breakdown
Defensive Zone
Edge: Fantilli
2
1
Fantilli
Zegras
3 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Fantilli
2
0
Fantilli
Zegras
2 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Fantilli
Zegras
Edge
Even Strength
44.7% (2,179)
39.0% (1,703)
+5.7%
Power Play
51.4% (210)
38.5% (148)
+12.9%
Penalty Kill
30.8% (26)
25.0% (8)
+5.8%
On power play, Fantilli has a +12.9% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Zegras shoots left. Fantilli is 44.3% vs left-shot opponents (1,604).
Fantilli shoots left. Zegras is 39.1% vs left-shot opponents (1,252).
Home / Away
Fantilli
Zegras
Home
47.3% (1,209)
40.5% (908)
Away
42.9% (1,206)
37.3% (951)
By Period
Fantilli
Zegras
P1
43.8%
40.0%
P2
46.3%
38.6%
P3
45.9%
38.2%
OT
25.8%
31.6%
Final 5 min
43.9%
40.1%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Fantilli
44.0%▼
46.5%
45.1%
Zegras
42.0%▲
28.0%
38.9%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 24, 2026 | 2 | 11:26 | Neutral | Adam Fantilli |
| Mar 24, 2026 | 2 | 01:51 | Defensive | Trevor Zegras |
| Mar 14, 2026 | 3 | 07:13 | Defensive | Adam Fantilli |
| Mar 14, 2026 | 3 | 07:06 | Defensive | Adam Fantilli |
| Mar 14, 2026 | 2 | 01:23 | Neutral | Adam Fantilli |