Scouting Report
Derek Stepan holds a +6.9% FO% edge overall. Look for Gaudette on offensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 3 meetings). Gaudette wins 40.5% vs right-shot opponents — Stepan shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Gaudette 42.5% vs Stepan 47.5% (-6.9%)
H2H factor
Not applied (7 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Stepan 64.4%
Defensive zone
Stepan 92.2%
Neutral zone
Stepan 75.3%
Result
Derek Stepan favored at 77.9%
22.1%
77.9%
Gaudette
Stepan
Head-to-Head Record
6
-
1
(7 meetings)
6
1
Gaudette
Stepan
Last 7: Gaudette 6-1 Stepan
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Gaudette
3
0
Gaudette
Stepan
3 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Gaudette
3
0
Gaudette
Stepan
3 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Stepan
0
1
Gaudette
Stepan
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Gaudette
Stepan
Edge
Even Strength
39.9% (343)
46.8% (991)
-6.9%
Power Play
46.2% (26)
48.8% (211)
-2.6%
Penalty Kill
50.0% (2)
48.3% (174)
+1.7%
On even strength, Stepan has a +6.9% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Stepan shoots right. Gaudette is 40.5% vs right-shot opponents (111).
Gaudette shoots right. Stepan is 46.9% vs right-shot opponents (418).
Home / Away
Gaudette
Stepan
Home
39.1% (225)
48.6% (666)
Away
42.5% (146)
46.1% (710)
By Period
Gaudette
Stepan
P1
45.0%
46.3%
P2
42.6%
50.7%
P3
34.6%
45.5%
Final 5 min
45.5%
42.9%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Gaudette
46.0%▼
48.5%
40.4%
Stepan
50.0%▼
55.5%
47.3%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 21, 2019 | 2 | 02:56 | Neutral | Derek Stepan |
| Feb 21, 2019 | 2 | 01:11 | Offensive | Adam Gaudette |
| Feb 21, 2019 | 1 | 10:43 | Defensive | Adam Gaudette |
| Oct 25, 2018 | 3 | 05:04 | Offensive | Adam Gaudette |
| Oct 25, 2018 | 2 | 17:36 | Offensive | Adam Gaudette |
| Oct 25, 2018 | 1 | 03:07 | Defensive | Adam Gaudette |
| Oct 25, 2018 | 1 | 03:00 | Defensive | Adam Gaudette |