Scouting Report
Derek Stepan holds a +2.4% FO% edge overall. Look for Gaudette on offensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 4 meetings). Gaudette wins 44.5% vs right-shot opponents — Stepan shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Gaudette 44.5% vs Stepan 46.6% (-2.4%)
H2H factor
Gaudette leads 8-4 in 12 meetings
Offensive zone
Stepan 58.5%
Defensive zone
Stepan 80.4%
Neutral zone
Stepan 63.9%
Result
Derek Stepan favored at 70.4%
29.6%
70.4%
Gaudette
Stepan
Head-to-Head Record
8
-
4
(12 meetings)
8
4
Gaudette
Stepan
Last 10: Gaudette 6-4 Stepan
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Gaudette
4
0
Gaudette
Stepan
4 total
Defensive Zone
Even
3
3
Gaudette
Stepan
6 total
Neutral Zone
Even
1
1
Gaudette
Stepan
2 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Gaudette
Stepan
Edge
Even Strength
43.7% (1,468)
46.5% (10,204)
-2.8%
Power Play
47.5% (183)
48.8% (1,593)
-1.3%
Penalty Kill
46.7% (15)
44.2% (1,368)
+2.5%
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Stepan shoots right. Gaudette is 44.5% vs right-shot opponents (481).
Gaudette shoots right. Stepan is 44.0% vs right-shot opponents (3,991).
Home / Away
Gaudette
Stepan
Home
45.9% (912)
47.6% (6,608)
Away
41.9% (754)
45.5% (6,573)
By Period
Gaudette
Stepan
P1
44.4%
47.5%
P2
46.5%
45.6%
P3
41.1%
46.8%
OT
100.0%
40.7%
Final 5 min
46.1%
47.5%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Gaudette
46.0%▼
48.5%
44.1%
Stepan
50.0%▼
55.5%
46.5%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 4, 2020 | 2 | 04:36 | Defensive | Derek Stepan |
| Jan 16, 2020 | 3 | 00:30 | Neutral | Adam Gaudette |
| Jan 16, 2020 | 2 | 17:43 | Defensive | Derek Stepan |
| Jan 16, 2020 | 2 | 17:38 | Offensive | Adam Gaudette |
| Jan 16, 2020 | 2 | 13:29 | Defensive | Derek Stepan |
| Feb 21, 2019 | 2 | 02:56 | Neutral | Derek Stepan |
| Feb 21, 2019 | 2 | 01:11 | Offensive | Adam Gaudette |
| Feb 21, 2019 | 1 | 10:43 | Defensive | Adam Gaudette |
| Oct 25, 2018 | 3 | 05:04 | Offensive | Adam Gaudette |
| Oct 25, 2018 | 2 | 17:36 | Offensive | Adam Gaudette |
| Oct 25, 2018 | 1 | 03:07 | Defensive | Adam Gaudette |
| Oct 25, 2018 | 1 | 03:00 | Defensive | Adam Gaudette |