Scouting Report
Jordan Staal holds a +11.6% FO% edge overall. Look for Staal on defensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 4 meetings). Gaudette wins 43.9% vs left-shot opponents — Staal shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Gaudette 44.1% vs Staal 55.3% (-11.6%)
H2H factor
Staal leads 8-2 in 10 meetings
Offensive zone
Gaudette 90.5%
Defensive zone
Gaudette 75.8%
Neutral zone
Gaudette 83.6%
Result
Adam Gaudette favored at 81.8%
81.8%
18.2%
Gaudette
Staal
Head-to-Head Record
2
-
8
(10 meetings)
2
8
Gaudette
Staal
Last 10: Gaudette 2-8 Staal
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Gaudette
2
0
Gaudette
Staal
2 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Staal
0
4
Gaudette
Staal
4 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Staal
0
4
Gaudette
Staal
4 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Gaudette
Staal
Edge
Even Strength
43.3% (1,410)
56.0% (14,405)
-12.7%
Power Play
47.5% (183)
62.6% (1,691)
-15.1%
Penalty Kill
44.4% (9)
48.1% (2,841)
-3.7%
On power play, Staal has a +15.1% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Staal shoots left. Gaudette is 43.9% vs left-shot opponents (1,141).
Gaudette shoots right. Staal is 58.6% vs right-shot opponents (6,477).
Home / Away
Gaudette
Staal
Home
45.5% (888)
56.4% (9,518)
Away
41.6% (714)
54.4% (9,484)
By Period
Gaudette
Staal
P1
44.2%
55.1%
P2
45.9%
56.0%
P3
40.8%
55.0%
OT
100.0%
55.6%
Final 5 min
46.1%
56.1%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Gaudette
44.0%▼
45.5%
43.8%
Staal
42.0%▼
54.0%
55.4%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dec 7, 2025 | 1 | 08:06 | Defensive | Jordan Staal |
| Oct 14, 2025 | 3 | 11:39 | Neutral | Jordan Staal |
| May 4, 2021 | 2 | 00:00 | Neutral | Jordan Staal |
| May 4, 2021 | 1 | 19:21 | Defensive | Jordan Staal |
| May 4, 2021 | 1 | 16:42 | Offensive | Adam Gaudette |
| Feb 2, 2020 | 3 | 15:19 | Neutral | Jordan Staal |
| Feb 2, 2020 | 2 | 11:10 | Defensive | Jordan Staal |
| Feb 2, 2020 | 1 | 08:54 | Offensive | Adam Gaudette |
| Dec 12, 2019 | 1 | 05:43 | Defensive | Jordan Staal |
| Dec 12, 2019 | 1 | 05:39 | Neutral | Jordan Staal |