Scouting Report
Kevin Hayes holds a +3.6% FO% edge overall. Look for Hayes on offensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 3 meetings). Gaudette wins 44.0% vs left-shot opponents — Hayes shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Gaudette 44.5% vs Hayes 47.7% (-3.6%)
H2H factor
Not applied (9 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Gaudette 81.0%
Defensive zone
Gaudette 57.5%
Neutral zone
Gaudette 67.5%
Result
Adam Gaudette favored at 69.8%
69.8%
30.2%
Gaudette
Hayes
Head-to-Head Record
1
-
8
(9 meetings)
1
8
Gaudette
Hayes
Last 9: Gaudette 1-8 Hayes
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Hayes
0
3
Gaudette
Hayes
3 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Hayes
0
2
Gaudette
Hayes
2 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Hayes
1
3
Gaudette
Hayes
4 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Gaudette
Hayes
Edge
Even Strength
43.7% (1,468)
47.5% (6,708)
-3.8%
Power Play
47.5% (183)
51.7% (702)
-4.2%
Penalty Kill
46.7% (15)
45.3% (697)
+1.4%
On power play, Hayes has a +4.2% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Hayes shoots left. Gaudette is 44.0% vs left-shot opponents (1,185).
Gaudette shoots right. Hayes is 46.3% vs right-shot opponents (2,975).
Home / Away
Gaudette
Hayes
Home
45.9% (912)
48.1% (3,982)
Away
41.9% (754)
47.3% (4,125)
By Period
Gaudette
Hayes
P1
44.4%
47.5%
P2
46.5%
47.6%
P3
41.1%
47.9%
OT
100.0%
54.1%
Final 5 min
46.1%
49.3%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Gaudette
46.0%▼
48.5%
44.1%
Hayes
30.0%▼
42.5%
47.7%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dec 13, 2025 | 2 | 09:34 | Offensive | Kevin Hayes |
| Mar 30, 2025 | 2 | 01:47 | Neutral | Kevin Hayes |
| Mar 18, 2022 | 2 | 17:19 | Neutral | Adam Gaudette |
| Nov 25, 2019 | 3 | 11:27 | Neutral | Kevin Hayes |
| Nov 25, 2019 | 3 | 09:22 | Offensive | Kevin Hayes |
| Nov 25, 2019 | 3 | 02:02 | Offensive | Kevin Hayes |
| Nov 25, 2019 | 1 | 11:08 | Defensive | Kevin Hayes |
| Nov 25, 2019 | 1 | 09:56 | Neutral | Kevin Hayes |
| Nov 25, 2019 | 1 | 07:03 | Defensive | Kevin Hayes |