Scouting Report
Mark Kastelic holds a +12.8% FO% edge overall. Gaudette wins 44.5% vs right-shot opponents — Kastelic shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Gaudette 44.5% vs Kastelic 56.5% (-12.8%)
H2H factor
Not applied (6 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Gaudette 88.6%
Defensive zone
Kastelic 79.3%
Neutral zone
Gaudette 67.4%
Result
Adam Gaudette favored at 58.9%
58.9%
41.1%
Gaudette
Kastelic
Head-to-Head Record
2
-
4
(6 meetings)
2
4
Gaudette
Kastelic
Last 6: Gaudette 2-4 Kastelic
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Even
1
1
Gaudette
Kastelic
2 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Kastelic
0
2
Gaudette
Kastelic
2 total
Neutral Zone
Even
1
1
Gaudette
Kastelic
2 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Gaudette
Kastelic
Edge
Even Strength
43.7% (1,468)
57.0% (1,613)
-13.3%
Power Play
47.5% (183)
80.0% (25)
-32.5%
Penalty Kill
46.7% (15)
53.6% (274)
-6.9%
On power play, Kastelic has a +32.5% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Kastelic shoots right. Gaudette is 44.5% vs right-shot opponents (481).
Gaudette shoots right. Kastelic is 58.7% vs right-shot opponents (492).
Home / Away
Gaudette
Kastelic
Home
45.9% (912)
58.9% (895)
Away
41.9% (754)
55.1% (1,017)
By Period
Gaudette
Kastelic
P1
44.4%
58.5%
P2
46.5%
56.9%
P3
41.1%
55.3%
OT
100.0%
53.8%
Final 5 min
46.1%
59.6%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Gaudette
46.0%▼
48.5%
44.1%
Kastelic
54.0%▼
60.0%
56.9%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 23, 2025 | 1 | 14:15 | Offensive | Adam Gaudette |
| Mar 13, 2025 | 3 | 01:22 | Defensive | Mark Kastelic |
| Mar 13, 2025 | 1 | 17:07 | Offensive | Mark Kastelic |
| Mar 13, 2025 | 1 | 16:43 | Neutral | Adam Gaudette |
| Mar 13, 2025 | 1 | 09:09 | Neutral | Mark Kastelic |
| Mar 13, 2025 | 1 | 01:49 | Defensive | Mark Kastelic |