Scouting Report
Sam Carrick holds a +6.7% FO% edge overall. Look for Gaudette on defensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 3 meetings). Gaudette wins 58.0% vs right-shot opponents — Carrick shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Gaudette 48.5% vs Carrick 53.7% (-6.7%)
H2H factor
Not applied (7 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Carrick 63.9%
Defensive zone
Carrick 88.1%
Neutral zone
Carrick 75.2%
Result
Sam Carrick favored at 77.5%
22.5%
77.5%
Gaudette
Carrick
Head-to-Head Record
5
-
2
(7 meetings)
5
2
Gaudette
Carrick
Last 7: Gaudette 5-2 Carrick
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Even
1
1
Gaudette
Carrick
2 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Gaudette
3
0
Gaudette
Carrick
3 total
Neutral Zone
Even
1
1
Gaudette
Carrick
2 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Gaudette
Carrick
Edge
Even Strength
45.7% (186)
54.9% (428)
-9.2%
Power Play
59.4% (32)
66.7% (3)
-7.3%
Penalty Kill
50.0% (6)
50.0% (50)
+0.0%
On even strength, Carrick has a +9.2% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Carrick shoots right. Gaudette is 58.0% vs right-shot opponents (69).
Gaudette shoots right. Carrick is 57.1% vs right-shot opponents (140).
Home / Away
Gaudette
Carrick
Home
48.4% (91)
58.2% (225)
Away
47.4% (133)
51.2% (256)
By Period
Gaudette
Carrick
P1
45.2%
55.2%
P2
51.9%
52.8%
P3
45.9%
55.4%
Final 5 min
40.0%
55.0%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Gaudette
46.0%▼
48.5%
47.8%
Carrick
54.0%▼
56.5%
54.5%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 10, 2026 | 3 | 17:14 | Neutral | Adam Gaudette |
| Mar 10, 2026 | 1 | 18:05 | Offensive | Sam Carrick |
| Mar 10, 2026 | 1 | 15:34 | Defensive | Adam Gaudette |
| Mar 10, 2026 | 1 | 15:31 | Defensive | Adam Gaudette |
| Mar 10, 2026 | 1 | 05:47 | Defensive | Adam Gaudette |
| Oct 23, 2025 | 2 | 12:10 | Neutral | Sam Carrick |
| Oct 23, 2025 | 1 | 04:53 | Offensive | Adam Gaudette |