Scouting Report
Adam Henrique holds a +4.1% FO% edge overall. Look for Stepan on neutral-zone draws (60% H2H, 47 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Henrique 50.6% vs Stepan 46.6% (+4.1%)
H2H factor
Stepan leads 84-70 in 154 meetings
Offensive zone
Stepan 58.6%
Defensive zone
Stepan 56.5%
Neutral zone
Stepan 56.8%
Result
Derek Stepan favored at 57.4%
42.6%
57.4%
Henrique
Stepan
Head-to-Head Record
70
-
84
(154 meetings)
70
84
Henrique
Stepan
Last 10: Henrique 5-5 Stepan
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Stepan
29
32
Henrique
Stepan
61 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Stepan
22
24
Henrique
Stepan
46 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Stepan
19
28
Henrique
Stepan
47 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Henrique
Stepan
Edge
Even Strength
50.8% (9,527)
46.5% (10,204)
+4.3%
Power Play
54.5% (1,762)
48.8% (1,593)
+5.7%
Penalty Kill
46.2% (1,822)
44.2% (1,368)
+2.0%
On power play, Henrique has a +5.7% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Stepan shoots right. Henrique is 49.7% vs right-shot opponents (4,629).
Henrique shoots left. Stepan is 47.6% vs left-shot opponents (9,190).
Home / Away
Henrique
Stepan
Home
52.5% (6,418)
47.6% (6,608)
Away
48.8% (6,716)
45.5% (6,573)
By Period
Henrique
Stepan
P1
50.6%
47.5%
P2
51.4%
45.6%
P3
50.2%
46.8%
OT
40.6%
40.7%
Final 5 min
50.4%
47.5%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Henrique
52.0%▬
52.5%
50.6%
Stepan
50.0%▼
55.5%
46.5%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 29, 2020 | 3 | 05:13 | Offensive | Adam Henrique |
| Jan 29, 2020 | 2 | 05:25 | Neutral | Adam Henrique |
| Jan 29, 2020 | 1 | 16:32 | Offensive | Adam Henrique |
| Jan 29, 2020 | 1 | 13:02 | Defensive | Derek Stepan |
| Jan 2, 2020 | 2 | 11:53 | Offensive | Derek Stepan |
| Nov 27, 2019 | OT | 02:03 | Neutral | Derek Stepan |
| Nov 27, 2019 | 3 | 14:04 | Defensive | Derek Stepan |
| Nov 27, 2019 | 3 | 14:01 | Offensive | Adam Henrique |
| Nov 27, 2019 | 3 | 11:22 | Offensive | Adam Henrique |
| Nov 27, 2019 | 2 | 16:34 | Defensive | Derek Stepan |
| Nov 27, 2019 | 2 | 03:42 | Offensive | Adam Henrique |
| Nov 27, 2019 | 1 | 14:18 | Defensive | Adam Henrique |
| Oct 3, 2019 | 3 | 18:33 | Offensive | Derek Stepan |
| Dec 29, 2018 | 2 | 18:29 | Offensive | Adam Henrique |
| Dec 29, 2018 | 2 | 15:45 | Offensive | Adam Henrique |
| Dec 29, 2018 | 2 | 00:25 | Offensive | Adam Henrique |
| Dec 29, 2018 | 2 | 00:12 | Neutral | Adam Henrique |
| Dec 29, 2018 | 1 | 13:52 | Defensive | Adam Henrique |
| Dec 29, 2018 | 1 | 13:23 | Offensive | Adam Henrique |
| Oct 10, 2018 | OT | 00:00 | Neutral | Adam Henrique |