Scouting Report
Adam Henrique holds a +1.2% FO% edge overall. Look for Stepan on neutral-zone draws (75% H2H, 8 meetings). Henrique wins 44.1% vs right-shot opponents — Stepan shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Henrique 48.3% vs Stepan 47.2% (+1.2%)
H2H factor
Stepan leads 14-4 in 18 meetings
Offensive zone
Stepan 60.3%
Defensive zone
Stepan 63.3%
Neutral zone
Stepan 66.2%
Result
Derek Stepan favored at 63.8%
36.2%
63.8%
Henrique
Stepan
Head-to-Head Record
4
-
14
(18 meetings)
4
14
Henrique
Stepan
Last 10: Henrique 1-9 Stepan
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Stepan
1
4
Henrique
Stepan
5 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Stepan
1
4
Henrique
Stepan
5 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Stepan
2
6
Henrique
Stepan
8 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Henrique
Stepan
Edge
Even Strength
47.7% (917)
48.2% (1,155)
-0.5%
Power Play
54.4% (149)
48.2% (193)
+6.2%
Penalty Kill
45.3% (148)
37.9% (174)
+7.4%
On penalty kill, Henrique has a +7.4% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Stepan shoots right. Henrique is 44.1% vs right-shot opponents (444).
Henrique shoots left. Stepan is 50.1% vs left-shot opponents (1,064).
Home / Away
Henrique
Stepan
Home
49.9% (567)
46.4% (774)
Away
46.7% (647)
47.7% (748)
By Period
Henrique
Stepan
P1
49.7%
46.7%
P2
45.3%
46.3%
P3
50.6%
48.1%
OT
31.8%
47.6%
Final 5 min
53.2%
46.7%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Henrique
52.0%▬
52.5%
48.2%
Stepan
50.0%▼
55.5%
47.0%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 21, 2017 | 3 | 13:46 | Offensive | Derek Stepan |
| Mar 21, 2017 | 3 | 09:37 | Defensive | Derek Stepan |
| Feb 25, 2017 | 3 | 18:50 | Neutral | Derek Stepan |
| Feb 25, 2017 | 2 | 19:49 | Neutral | Derek Stepan |
| Feb 25, 2017 | 2 | 19:32 | Neutral | Derek Stepan |
| Feb 25, 2017 | 2 | 16:10 | Defensive | Derek Stepan |
| Feb 25, 2017 | 2 | 12:03 | Offensive | Derek Stepan |
| Dec 18, 2016 | 3 | 18:41 | Offensive | Derek Stepan |
| Dec 18, 2016 | 3 | 18:33 | Offensive | Derek Stepan |
| Dec 18, 2016 | 3 | 11:07 | Defensive | Adam Henrique |
| Dec 18, 2016 | 3 | 00:00 | Neutral | Adam Henrique |
| Dec 18, 2016 | 2 | 15:24 | Defensive | Derek Stepan |
| Dec 18, 2016 | 2 | 11:54 | Neutral | Derek Stepan |
| Dec 18, 2016 | 1 | 02:49 | Offensive | Adam Henrique |
| Dec 11, 2016 | 3 | 04:31 | Neutral | Derek Stepan |
| Dec 11, 2016 | 3 | 00:00 | Neutral | Derek Stepan |
| Dec 11, 2016 | 2 | 06:48 | Neutral | Adam Henrique |
| Dec 11, 2016 | 1 | 07:37 | Defensive | Derek Stepan |