Scouting Report
Jonathan Toews holds a +6.9% FO% edge overall. Look for Henrique on defensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 3 meetings). Henrique wins 54.7% vs left-shot opponents — Toews shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Henrique 53.8% vs Toews 60.2% (-6.9%)
H2H factor
Not applied (6 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Toews 92.4%
Defensive zone
Toews 52.3%
Neutral zone
Toews 80.4%
Result
Jonathan Toews favored at 68.4%
31.6%
68.4%
Henrique
Toews
Head-to-Head Record
4
-
2
(6 meetings)
4
2
Henrique
Toews
Last 6: Henrique 4-2 Toews
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Henrique
1
0
Henrique
Toews
1 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Henrique
3
0
Henrique
Toews
3 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Toews
0
2
Henrique
Toews
2 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Henrique
Toews
Edge
Even Strength
56.1% (376)
62.4% (692)
-6.3%
Power Play
47.6% (21)
59.3% (135)
-11.7%
Penalty Kill
50.8% (124)
46.9% (32)
+3.9%
On power play, Toews has a +11.7% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Toews shoots left. Henrique is 54.7% vs left-shot opponents (351).
Henrique shoots left. Toews is 56.1% vs left-shot opponents (574).
Home / Away
Henrique
Toews
Home
53.5% (215)
60.9% (435)
Away
55.2% (306)
61.8% (424)
By Period
Henrique
Toews
P1
57.7%
60.2%
P2
53.8%
65.7%
P3
51.6%
58.2%
OT
100.0%
75.0%
Final 5 min
48.1%
58.3%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Henrique
52.0%▬
52.5%
54.5%
Toews
62.0%▬
61.5%
61.4%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dec 29, 2025 | 3 | 10:07 | Neutral | Jonathan Toews |
| Dec 29, 2025 | 1 | 16:44 | Offensive | Adam Henrique |
| Dec 29, 2025 | 1 | 02:04 | Neutral | Jonathan Toews |
| Dec 6, 2025 | 2 | 19:11 | Defensive | Adam Henrique |
| Dec 6, 2025 | 1 | 17:41 | Defensive | Adam Henrique |
| Dec 6, 2025 | 1 | 17:37 | Defensive | Adam Henrique |