Scouting Report
Jonathan Toews holds a +4.5% FO% edge overall. Look for Henrique on defensive-zone draws (75% H2H, 4 meetings). Henrique wins 54.5% vs left-shot opponents — Toews shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Henrique 51.7% vs Toews 56.2% (-4.5%)
H2H factor
Not applied (6 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Toews 92.2%
Defensive zone
Toews 62.5%
Neutral zone
Toews 75.0%
Result
Jonathan Toews favored at 66.7%
33.3%
66.7%
Henrique
Toews
Head-to-Head Record
5
-
1
(6 meetings)
5
1
Henrique
Toews
Last 6: Henrique 5-1 Toews
Zone Breakdown
Defensive Zone
Edge: Henrique
3
1
Henrique
Toews
4 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Henrique
2
0
Henrique
Toews
2 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Henrique
Toews
Edge
Even Strength
53.4% (358)
54.9% (1,229)
-1.5%
Power Play
55.2% (67)
62.7% (354)
-7.5%
Penalty Kill
44.7% (94)
54.3% (92)
-9.6%
On penalty kill, Toews has a +9.6% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Toews shoots left. Henrique is 54.5% vs left-shot opponents (336).
Henrique shoots left. Toews is 54.6% vs left-shot opponents (1,050).
Home / Away
Henrique
Toews
Home
53.9% (245)
57.6% (838)
Away
50.4% (274)
55.4% (837)
By Period
Henrique
Toews
P1
52.8%
58.0%
P2
56.5%
54.4%
P3
46.1%
56.7%
OT
58.3%
64.5%
Final 5 min
51.9%
53.3%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Henrique
52.0%▬
52.5%
52.0%
Toews
58.0%▼
61.0%
56.5%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dec 9, 2014 | OT | 02:54 | Defensive | Adam Henrique |
| Dec 9, 2014 | 3 | 00:00 | Neutral | Adam Henrique |
| Dec 9, 2014 | 1 | 16:00 | Defensive | Adam Henrique |
| Dec 9, 2014 | 1 | 15:54 | Defensive | Adam Henrique |
| Dec 9, 2014 | 1 | 04:52 | Defensive | Jonathan Toews |
| Dec 9, 2014 | 1 | 00:00 | Neutral | Adam Henrique |