Scouting Report
Aleksander Barkov holds a +3.9% FO% edge overall. Look for Barkov on offensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 3 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Lowry 52.7% vs Barkov 56.4% (-3.9%)
H2H factor
Not applied (5 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Barkov 67.0%
Defensive zone
Lowry 75.7%
Neutral zone
Lowry 61.7%
Result
Adam Lowry favored at 50.1%
50.1%
49.9%
Lowry
Barkov
Head-to-Head Record
2
-
3
(5 meetings)
2
3
Lowry
Barkov
Last 5: Lowry 2-3 Barkov
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Barkov
0
3
Lowry
Barkov
3 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Lowry
2
0
Lowry
Barkov
2 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Lowry
Barkov
Edge
Even Strength
55.8% (796)
57.0% (870)
-1.2%
Power Play
54.7% (53)
63.8% (210)
-9.1%
Penalty Kill
42.3% (215)
48.3% (172)
-6.0%
On power play, Barkov has a +9.1% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Barkov shoots left. Lowry is 50.3% vs left-shot opponents (672).
Lowry shoots left. Barkov is 58.0% vs left-shot opponents (719).
Home / Away
Lowry
Barkov
Home
53.4% (515)
59.2% (557)
Away
52.6% (549)
55.1% (695)
By Period
Lowry
Barkov
P1
54.2%
56.7%
P2
54.4%
54.8%
P3
50.8%
59.7%
OT
37.5%
55.6%
Final 5 min
54.2%
59.4%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Lowry
46.0%▼
54.5%
53.0%
Barkov
44.0%▼
47.5%
56.9%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Apr 15, 2022 | 1 | 16:43 | Defensive | Adam Lowry |
| Apr 15, 2022 | 1 | 06:57 | Defensive | Adam Lowry |
| Jan 25, 2022 | 3 | 18:26 | Offensive | Aleksander Barkov |
| Jan 25, 2022 | 3 | 08:25 | Offensive | Aleksander Barkov |
| Jan 25, 2022 | 2 | 08:56 | Offensive | Aleksander Barkov |