Scouting Report
These two are closely matched in overall FO% (46.3% vs 46.7%). Look for Stepan on offensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 4 meetings). Lowry wins 44.0% vs right-shot opponents — Stepan shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Lowry 46.7% vs Stepan 47.0% (-0.4%)
H2H factor
Not applied (8 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Stepan 64.9%
Defensive zone
Lowry 71.7%
Neutral zone
Lowry 56.1%
Result
Derek Stepan favored at 52.5%
47.5%
52.5%
Lowry
Stepan
Head-to-Head Record
2
-
6
(8 meetings)
2
6
Lowry
Stepan
Last 8: Lowry 2-6 Stepan
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Stepan
0
4
Lowry
Stepan
4 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Lowry
1
0
Lowry
Stepan
1 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Stepan
1
2
Lowry
Stepan
3 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Lowry
Stepan
Edge
Even Strength
46.5% (666)
46.6% (889)
-0.1%
Power Play
57.1% (7)
46.9% (113)
+10.2%
Penalty Kill
44.8% (172)
47.5% (101)
-2.7%
On power play, Lowry has a +10.2% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Stepan shoots right. Lowry is 44.0% vs right-shot opponents (368).
Lowry shoots left. Stepan is 48.0% vs left-shot opponents (785).
Home / Away
Lowry
Stepan
Home
49.9% (393)
47.7% (555)
Away
43.1% (452)
45.6% (548)
By Period
Lowry
Stepan
P1
45.1%
46.4%
P2
44.8%
45.7%
P3
49.1%
48.5%
OT
0.0%
35.3%
Final 5 min
46.2%
46.5%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Lowry
46.0%▼
54.5%
46.3%
Stepan
50.0%▼
55.5%
46.7%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 13, 2015 | 3 | 10:35 | Neutral | Derek Stepan |
| Oct 13, 2015 | 2 | 11:37 | Offensive | Derek Stepan |
| Oct 13, 2015 | 2 | 09:03 | Offensive | Derek Stepan |
| Oct 13, 2015 | 2 | 08:51 | Offensive | Derek Stepan |
| Oct 13, 2015 | 1 | 10:00 | Defensive | Adam Lowry |
| Oct 13, 2015 | 1 | 06:48 | Neutral | Adam Lowry |
| Oct 13, 2015 | 1 | 06:45 | Neutral | Derek Stepan |
| Oct 13, 2015 | 1 | 00:48 | Offensive | Derek Stepan |