Scouting Report
Derek Stepan holds a +2.9% FO% edge overall. Lowry wins 57.7% vs right-shot opponents — Stepan shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Lowry 52.7% vs Stepan 54.8% (-2.9%)
H2H factor
Not applied (1 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Stepan 51.0%
Defensive zone
Lowry 60.9%
Neutral zone
Lowry 62.0%
Result
Adam Lowry favored at 62.0%
62.0%
38.0%
Lowry
Stepan
Head-to-Head Record
0
-
1
(1 meetings)
0
1
Lowry
Stepan
Zone Breakdown
Neutral Zone
Edge: Stepan
0
1
Lowry
Stepan
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Lowry
Stepan
Edge
Even Strength
55.8% (796)
54.5% (374)
+1.3%
Power Play
54.7% (53)
0.0% (2)
+54.7%
Penalty Kill
42.3% (215)
64.7% (68)
-22.4%
On power play, Lowry has a +54.7% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Stepan shoots right. Lowry is 57.7% vs right-shot opponents (392).
Lowry shoots left. Stepan is 56.8% vs left-shot opponents (324).
Home / Away
Lowry
Stepan
Home
53.4% (515)
54.5% (222)
Away
52.6% (549)
57.2% (222)
By Period
Lowry
Stepan
P1
54.2%
57.5%
P2
54.4%
54.7%
P3
50.8%
55.9%
Final 5 min
54.2%
57.5%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Lowry
46.0%▼
54.5%
53.0%
Stepan
50.0%▼
55.5%
55.9%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dec 7, 2021 | 2 | 16:06 | Neutral | Derek Stepan |