Scouting Report
Jason Spezza holds a +6.4% FO% edge overall. Look for Spezza on offensive-zone draws (57% H2H, 7 meetings). Lowry wins 53.8% vs right-shot opponents — Spezza shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Lowry 50.4% vs Spezza 55.7% (-6.4%)
H2H factor
Spezza leads 6-4 in 10 meetings
Offensive zone
Lowry 54.0%
Defensive zone
Lowry 70.0%
Neutral zone
Lowry 66.3%
Result
Adam Lowry favored at 58.4%
58.4%
41.6%
Lowry
Spezza
Head-to-Head Record
4
-
6
(10 meetings)
4
6
Lowry
Spezza
Last 10: Lowry 4-6 Spezza
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Spezza
3
4
Lowry
Spezza
7 total
Defensive Zone
Even
1
1
Lowry
Spezza
2 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Spezza
0
1
Lowry
Spezza
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Lowry
Spezza
Edge
Even Strength
51.4% (523)
57.9% (292)
-6.5%
Power Play
56.7% (30)
62.3% (53)
-5.6%
Penalty Kill
46.3% (162)
52.9% (138)
-6.6%
On penalty kill, Spezza has a +6.6% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Spezza shoots right. Lowry is 53.8% vs right-shot opponents (221).
Lowry shoots left. Spezza is 56.5% vs left-shot opponents (347).
Home / Away
Lowry
Spezza
Home
50.3% (354)
58.4% (238)
Away
50.7% (361)
55.5% (245)
By Period
Lowry
Spezza
P1
48.5%
59.2%
P2
52.2%
54.8%
P3
50.9%
57.4%
Final 5 min
53.0%
51.5%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Lowry
46.0%▼
54.5%
50.5%
Spezza
46.0%▼
48.5%
56.9%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 14, 2021 | 1 | 10:04 | Offensive | Adam Lowry |
| Apr 15, 2021 | 3 | 05:53 | Offensive | Jason Spezza |
| Apr 15, 2021 | 1 | 16:04 | Offensive | Jason Spezza |
| Apr 15, 2021 | 1 | 05:48 | Offensive | Adam Lowry |
| Apr 2, 2021 | 3 | 01:30 | Offensive | Jason Spezza |
| Apr 2, 2021 | 2 | 11:50 | Neutral | Jason Spezza |
| Apr 2, 2021 | 2 | 07:08 | Offensive | Jason Spezza |
| Mar 31, 2021 | 2 | 17:28 | Defensive | Jason Spezza |
| Mar 31, 2021 | 2 | 15:21 | Offensive | Adam Lowry |
| Mar 13, 2021 | 2 | 01:16 | Defensive | Adam Lowry |