Scouting Report
Jason Spezza holds a +3.1% FO% edge overall. Look for Lowry on defensive-zone draws (74% H2H, 27 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Lowry 51.5% vs Spezza 54.7% (-3.1%)
H2H factor
Spezza leads 40-40 in 80 meetings
Offensive zone
Spezza 66.1%
Defensive zone
Lowry 84.3%
Neutral zone
Lowry 57.7%
Result
Adam Lowry favored at 56.3%
56.3%
43.7%
Lowry
Spezza
Head-to-Head Record
40
-
40
(80 meetings)
40
40
Lowry
Spezza
Last 10: Lowry 5-5 Spezza
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Spezza
12
23
Lowry
Spezza
35 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Lowry
20
7
Lowry
Spezza
27 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Spezza
8
10
Lowry
Spezza
18 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Lowry
Spezza
Edge
Even Strength
52.8% (9,130)
54.4% (7,990)
-1.6%
Power Play
57.1% (455)
56.8% (1,726)
+0.3%
Penalty Kill
44.9% (2,139)
52.7% (643)
-7.8%
On penalty kill, Spezza has a +7.8% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Spezza shoots right. Lowry is 52.2% vs right-shot opponents (3,984).
Lowry shoots left. Spezza is 55.0% vs left-shot opponents (7,310).
Home / Away
Lowry
Spezza
Home
53.5% (5,893)
56.8% (5,066)
Away
49.6% (5,831)
52.7% (5,332)
By Period
Lowry
Spezza
P1
51.5%
55.7%
P2
51.8%
54.4%
P3
51.4%
54.1%
OT
46.3%
51.5%
Final 5 min
52.9%
54.2%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Lowry
46.0%▼
54.5%
51.6%
Spezza
46.0%▼
48.5%
54.7%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 31, 2022 | 2 | 16:13 | Offensive | Adam Lowry |
| Mar 31, 2022 | 2 | 11:10 | Offensive | Jason Spezza |
| Mar 31, 2022 | 1 | 07:45 | Neutral | Jason Spezza |
| Dec 5, 2021 | 2 | 02:19 | Offensive | Adam Lowry |
| Dec 5, 2021 | 1 | 10:16 | Defensive | Adam Lowry |
| May 14, 2021 | 1 | 10:04 | Offensive | Adam Lowry |
| Apr 15, 2021 | 3 | 05:53 | Offensive | Jason Spezza |
| Apr 15, 2021 | 1 | 16:04 | Offensive | Jason Spezza |
| Apr 15, 2021 | 1 | 05:48 | Offensive | Adam Lowry |
| Apr 2, 2021 | 3 | 01:30 | Offensive | Jason Spezza |
| Apr 2, 2021 | 2 | 11:50 | Neutral | Jason Spezza |
| Apr 2, 2021 | 2 | 07:08 | Offensive | Jason Spezza |
| Mar 31, 2021 | 2 | 17:28 | Defensive | Jason Spezza |
| Mar 31, 2021 | 2 | 15:21 | Offensive | Adam Lowry |
| Mar 13, 2021 | 2 | 01:16 | Defensive | Adam Lowry |
| Jan 8, 2020 | 3 | 12:36 | Offensive | Adam Lowry |
| Jan 8, 2020 | 1 | 04:00 | Neutral | Jason Spezza |
| Jan 8, 2020 | 1 | 00:34 | Neutral | Adam Lowry |
| Jan 2, 2020 | 3 | 07:33 | Defensive | Adam Lowry |
| Jan 2, 2020 | 3 | 02:15 | Offensive | Jason Spezza |