Scouting Report
These two are closely matched in overall FO% (53.0% vs 52.9%). Look for Lowry on offensive-zone draws (67% H2H, 3 meetings). Lowry wins 57.7% vs right-shot opponents — Spezza shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Lowry 52.7% vs Spezza 52.4% (+0.1%)
H2H factor
Not applied (5 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Spezza 72.1%
Defensive zone
Lowry 76.7%
Neutral zone
Lowry 57.3%
Result
Jason Spezza favored at 56.5%
43.5%
56.5%
Lowry
Spezza
Head-to-Head Record
3
-
2
(5 meetings)
3
2
Lowry
Spezza
Last 5: Lowry 3-2 Spezza
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Lowry
2
1
Lowry
Spezza
3 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Lowry
1
0
Lowry
Spezza
1 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Spezza
0
1
Lowry
Spezza
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Lowry
Spezza
Edge
Even Strength
55.8% (796)
53.7% (451)
+2.1%
Power Play
54.7% (53)
54.3% (92)
+0.4%
Penalty Kill
42.3% (215)
38.2% (34)
+4.1%
On penalty kill, Lowry has a +4.1% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Spezza shoots right. Lowry is 57.7% vs right-shot opponents (392).
Lowry shoots left. Spezza is 53.3% vs left-shot opponents (409).
Home / Away
Lowry
Spezza
Home
53.4% (515)
55.0% (282)
Away
52.6% (549)
50.8% (295)
By Period
Lowry
Spezza
P1
54.2%
53.1%
P2
54.4%
53.2%
P3
50.8%
52.3%
Final 5 min
54.2%
56.7%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Lowry
46.0%▼
54.5%
53.0%
Spezza
46.0%▼
48.5%
52.9%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 31, 2022 | 2 | 16:13 | Offensive | Adam Lowry |
| Mar 31, 2022 | 2 | 11:10 | Offensive | Jason Spezza |
| Mar 31, 2022 | 1 | 07:45 | Neutral | Jason Spezza |
| Dec 5, 2021 | 2 | 02:19 | Offensive | Adam Lowry |
| Dec 5, 2021 | 1 | 10:16 | Defensive | Adam Lowry |