Scouting Report
Adam Lowry holds a +5.6% FO% edge overall. Look for Kozak on offensive-zone draws (67% H2H, 3 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Lowry 51.6% vs Kozak 47.8% (+5.6%)
H2H factor
Not applied (5 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Kozak 54.6%
Defensive zone
Lowry 75.3%
Neutral zone
Lowry 64.4%
Result
Adam Lowry favored at 53.0%
53.0%
47.0%
Lowry
Kozak
Head-to-Head Record
3
-
2
(5 meetings)
3
2
Lowry
Kozak
Last 5: Lowry 3-2 Kozak
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Kozak
1
2
Lowry
Kozak
3 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Lowry
2
0
Lowry
Kozak
2 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Lowry
Kozak
Edge
Even Strength
53.7% (933)
46.0% (137)
+7.7%
Power Play
60.7% (28)
66.7% (3)
-6.0%
Penalty Kill
42.7% (227)
40.0% (5)
+2.7%
On even strength, Lowry has a +7.7% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Kozak shoots left. Lowry is 50.4% vs left-shot opponents (840).
Lowry shoots left. Kozak is 50.6% vs left-shot opponents (83).
Home / Away
Lowry
Kozak
Home
53.0% (583)
51.2% (84)
Away
50.6% (605)
39.3% (61)
By Period
Lowry
Kozak
P1
52.1%
57.1%
P2
51.8%
34.7%
P3
52.3%
48.1%
Final 5 min
53.9%
46.7%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Lowry
46.0%▼
54.5%
51.8%
Kozak
50.0%▬
49.0%
46.2%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 23, 2025 | 3 | 07:09 | Offensive | Tyson Kozak |
| Mar 23, 2025 | 1 | 08:12 | Offensive | Adam Lowry |
| Dec 5, 2024 | 3 | 00:00 | Neutral | Adam Lowry |
| Dec 5, 2024 | 2 | 12:46 | Offensive | Tyson Kozak |
| Dec 5, 2024 | 2 | 00:00 | Neutral | Adam Lowry |