Scouting Report
Adam Lowry holds a +3.3% FO% edge overall. Look for Kozak on offensive-zone draws (67% H2H, 3 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Lowry 51.5% vs Kozak 48.6% (+3.3%)
H2H factor
Not applied (5 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Lowry 62.7%
Defensive zone
Lowry 70.9%
Neutral zone
Lowry 62.7%
Result
Adam Lowry favored at 62.7%
62.7%
37.3%
Lowry
Kozak
Head-to-Head Record
3
-
2
(5 meetings)
3
2
Lowry
Kozak
Last 5: Lowry 3-2 Kozak
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Kozak
1
2
Lowry
Kozak
3 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Lowry
2
0
Lowry
Kozak
2 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Lowry
Kozak
Edge
Even Strength
52.8% (8,914)
48.2% (382)
+4.6%
Power Play
57.0% (453)
57.1% (7)
-0.1%
Penalty Kill
45.0% (2,120)
46.9% (32)
-1.9%
On even strength, Lowry has a +4.6% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Kozak shoots left. Lowry is 51.3% vs left-shot opponents (7,585).
Lowry shoots left. Kozak is 47.5% vs left-shot opponents (284).
Home / Away
Lowry
Kozak
Home
53.4% (5,759)
47.2% (216)
Away
49.6% (5,728)
49.3% (205)
By Period
Lowry
Kozak
P1
51.5%
55.1%
P2
51.7%
43.7%
P3
51.3%
46.2%
Final 5 min
52.7%
43.0%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Lowry
68.0%▲
55.5%
51.5%
Kozak
54.0%▲
50.0%
48.2%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 23, 2025 | 3 | 07:09 | Offensive | Tyson Kozak |
| Mar 23, 2025 | 1 | 08:12 | Offensive | Adam Lowry |
| Dec 5, 2024 | 3 | 00:00 | Neutral | Adam Lowry |
| Dec 5, 2024 | 2 | 12:46 | Offensive | Tyson Kozak |
| Dec 5, 2024 | 2 | 00:00 | Neutral | Adam Lowry |