Scouting Report
Adrian Kempe holds a +5.6% FO% edge overall. Look for Kempe on defensive-zone draws (75% H2H, 4 meetings). Kempe wins 43.3% vs right-shot opponents — Schmaltz shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Kempe 43.5% vs Schmaltz 40.4% (+5.6%)
H2H factor
Not applied (8 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Schmaltz 51.3%
Defensive zone
Kempe 64.4%
Neutral zone
Kempe 52.6%
Result
Adrian Kempe favored at 58.0%
58.0%
42.0%
Kempe
Schmaltz
Head-to-Head Record
5
-
3
(8 meetings)
5
3
Kempe
Schmaltz
Last 8: Kempe 5-3 Schmaltz
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Kempe
1
0
Kempe
Schmaltz
1 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Kempe
3
1
Kempe
Schmaltz
4 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Schmaltz
1
2
Kempe
Schmaltz
3 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Kempe
Schmaltz
Edge
Even Strength
42.6% (671)
37.6% (237)
+5.0%
Power Play
42.0% (50)
32.5% (40)
+9.5%
Penalty Kill
44.4% (18)
50.0% (4)
-5.6%
On power play, Kempe has a +9.5% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Schmaltz shoots right. Kempe is 43.3% vs right-shot opponents (252).
Kempe shoots left. Schmaltz is 37.3% vs left-shot opponents (204).
Home / Away
Kempe
Schmaltz
Home
43.6% (369)
42.6% (129)
Away
41.6% (370)
32.2% (152)
By Period
Kempe
Schmaltz
P1
40.0%
38.8%
P2
44.3%
29.4%
P3
43.6%
42.2%
OT
37.5%
33.3%
Final 5 min
43.6%
36.4%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Kempe
26.0%▼
35.5%
42.6%
Schmaltz
46.0%▬
45.0%
37.0%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dec 27, 2018 | 3 | 06:03 | Neutral | Nick Schmaltz |
| Dec 27, 2018 | 3 | 03:35 | Defensive | Nick Schmaltz |
| Dec 27, 2018 | 2 | 12:05 | Neutral | Nick Schmaltz |
| Dec 27, 2018 | 1 | 07:02 | Defensive | Adrian Kempe |
| Dec 4, 2018 | 3 | 04:37 | Offensive | Adrian Kempe |
| Dec 4, 2018 | 3 | 01:24 | Neutral | Adrian Kempe |
| Dec 4, 2018 | 3 | 01:18 | Defensive | Adrian Kempe |
| Dec 4, 2018 | 1 | 11:15 | Defensive | Adrian Kempe |