Scouting Report
Ryan McLeod holds a +11.7% FO% edge overall. Look for McLeod on defensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 3 meetings). Kempe wins 44.0% vs left-shot opponents — McLeod shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Kempe 41.7% vs McLeod 47.8% (-11.7%)
H2H factor
Not applied (5 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Kempe 76.9%
Defensive zone
McLeod 74.3%
Neutral zone
Kempe 53.7%
Result
Ryan McLeod favored at 53.8%
46.2%
53.8%
Kempe
McLeod
Head-to-Head Record
2
-
3
(5 meetings)
2
3
Kempe
McLeod
Last 5: Kempe 2-3 McLeod
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Kempe
2
0
Kempe
McLeod
2 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: McLeod
0
3
Kempe
McLeod
3 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Kempe
McLeod
Edge
Even Strength
38.2% (102)
49.2% (796)
-11.0%
Power Play
30.6% (36)
44.8% (87)
-14.2%
Penalty Kill
25.0% (4)
43.3% (263)
-18.3%
On penalty kill, McLeod has a +18.3% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
McLeod shoots left. Kempe is 44.0% vs left-shot opponents (84).
Kempe shoots left. McLeod is 48.7% vs left-shot opponents (748).
Home / Away
Kempe
McLeod
Home
36.4% (66)
49.2% (575)
Away
35.5% (76)
45.9% (571)
By Period
Kempe
McLeod
P1
37.3%
52.8%
P2
36.7%
45.1%
P3
31.4%
45.6%
OT
42.9%
35.7%
Final 5 min
40.0%
44.4%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Kempe
26.0%▼
35.5%
35.9%
McLeod
52.0%▬
51.5%
47.6%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 29, 2026 | 2 | 15:35 | Offensive | Adrian Kempe |
| Jan 29, 2026 | 2 | 07:36 | Offensive | Adrian Kempe |
| Jan 29, 2026 | 2 | 00:51 | Defensive | Ryan McLeod |
| Jan 29, 2026 | 1 | 16:47 | Defensive | Ryan McLeod |
| Jan 29, 2026 | 1 | 14:04 | Defensive | Ryan McLeod |