Scouting Report
Ryan McLeod holds a +9.1% FO% edge overall. Look for McLeod on defensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 3 meetings). Kempe wins 39.7% vs left-shot opponents — McLeod shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Kempe 41.0% vs McLeod 49.6% (-9.1%)
H2H factor
Not applied (6 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Kempe 82.6%
Defensive zone
McLeod 57.6%
Neutral zone
Kempe 64.6%
Result
Adrian Kempe favored at 62.5%
62.5%
37.5%
Kempe
McLeod
Head-to-Head Record
2
-
4
(6 meetings)
2
4
Kempe
McLeod
Last 6: Kempe 2-4 McLeod
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Kempe
2
1
Kempe
McLeod
3 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: McLeod
0
3
Kempe
McLeod
3 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Kempe
McLeod
Edge
Even Strength
40.2% (1,881)
50.4% (3,345)
-10.2%
Power Play
43.1% (211)
51.0% (292)
-7.9%
Penalty Kill
42.6% (54)
44.3% (635)
-1.7%
On even strength, McLeod has a +10.2% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
McLeod shoots left. Kempe is 39.7% vs left-shot opponents (1,356).
Kempe shoots left. McLeod is 49.7% vs left-shot opponents (2,782).
Home / Away
Kempe
McLeod
Home
42.4% (1,045)
50.2% (2,158)
Away
38.8% (1,101)
48.9% (2,114)
By Period
Kempe
McLeod
P1
39.5%
50.8%
P2
40.1%
48.4%
P3
42.2%
50.0%
OT
37.0%
37.1%
Final 5 min
37.2%
48.7%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Kempe
26.0%▼
35.5%
40.5%
McLeod
52.0%▬
51.5%
49.6%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 29, 2026 | 2 | 15:35 | Offensive | Adrian Kempe |
| Jan 29, 2026 | 2 | 07:36 | Offensive | Adrian Kempe |
| Jan 29, 2026 | 2 | 00:51 | Defensive | Ryan McLeod |
| Jan 29, 2026 | 1 | 16:47 | Defensive | Ryan McLeod |
| Jan 29, 2026 | 1 | 14:04 | Defensive | Ryan McLeod |
| Jan 9, 2023 | 2 | 14:15 | Offensive | Ryan McLeod |