Scouting Report
Sam Steel holds a +9.7% FO% edge overall. Look for Steel on neutral-zone draws (100% H2H, 4 meetings). Kempe wins 39.7% vs left-shot opponents — Steel shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Kempe 41.0% vs Steel 50.2% (-9.7%)
H2H factor
Steel leads 10-6 in 16 meetings
Offensive zone
Kempe 79.8%
Defensive zone
Kempe 72.6%
Neutral zone
Kempe 75.0%
Result
Adrian Kempe favored at 75.4%
75.4%
24.6%
Kempe
Steel
Head-to-Head Record
6
-
10
(16 meetings)
6
10
Kempe
Steel
Last 10: Kempe 4-6 Steel
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Kempe
3
2
Kempe
Steel
5 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Steel
3
4
Kempe
Steel
7 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Steel
0
4
Kempe
Steel
4 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Kempe
Steel
Edge
Even Strength
40.2% (1,881)
50.6% (2,876)
-10.4%
Power Play
43.1% (211)
62.6% (179)
-19.5%
Penalty Kill
42.6% (54)
37.4% (254)
+5.2%
On power play, Steel has a +19.5% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Steel shoots left. Kempe is 39.7% vs left-shot opponents (1,356).
Kempe shoots left. Steel is 50.0% vs left-shot opponents (2,072).
Home / Away
Kempe
Steel
Home
42.4% (1,045)
50.0% (1,560)
Away
38.8% (1,101)
50.4% (1,749)
By Period
Kempe
Steel
P1
39.5%
51.9%
P2
40.1%
49.5%
P3
42.2%
49.6%
OT
37.0%
41.9%
Final 5 min
37.2%
48.4%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Kempe
26.0%▼
35.5%
40.5%
Steel
50.0%▬
49.0%
50.2%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 12, 2026 | 1 | 03:04 | Defensive | Adrian Kempe |
| Apr 30, 2021 | 3 | 00:50 | Defensive | Sam Steel |
| Apr 30, 2021 | 1 | 19:22 | Defensive | Sam Steel |
| Apr 30, 2021 | 1 | 04:00 | Offensive | Adrian Kempe |
| Mar 8, 2021 | 1 | 05:08 | Neutral | Sam Steel |
| Dec 2, 2019 | 2 | 01:30 | Neutral | Sam Steel |
| Apr 5, 2019 | 3 | 01:56 | Neutral | Sam Steel |
| Apr 5, 2019 | 2 | 11:33 | Defensive | Adrian Kempe |
| Apr 5, 2019 | 1 | 01:44 | Offensive | Sam Steel |
| Mar 23, 2019 | 3 | 12:44 | Offensive | Adrian Kempe |
| Mar 23, 2019 | 2 | 16:12 | Offensive | Sam Steel |
| Mar 23, 2019 | 2 | 02:13 | Defensive | Sam Steel |
| Mar 23, 2019 | 2 | 02:02 | Offensive | Adrian Kempe |
| Mar 23, 2019 | 2 | 01:47 | Neutral | Sam Steel |
| Mar 23, 2019 | 1 | 08:39 | Defensive | Sam Steel |
| Mar 23, 2019 | 1 | 03:11 | Defensive | Adrian Kempe |