Scouting Report
Tomas Hertl holds a +21.9% FO% edge overall. Kempe wins 44.0% vs left-shot opponents — Hertl shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Kempe 41.7% vs Hertl 57.2% (-21.9%)
H2H factor
Not applied (2 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Hertl 64.2%
Defensive zone
Hertl 62.3%
Neutral zone
Hertl 58.3%
Result
Tomas Hertl favored at 58.3%
41.7%
58.3%
Kempe
Hertl
Head-to-Head Record
1
-
1
(2 meetings)
1
1
Kempe
Hertl
Zone Breakdown
Neutral Zone
Even
1
1
Kempe
Hertl
2 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Kempe
Hertl
Edge
Even Strength
38.2% (102)
58.1% (823)
-19.9%
Power Play
30.6% (36)
56.2% (265)
-25.6%
Penalty Kill
25.0% (4)
62.9% (35)
-37.9%
On penalty kill, Hertl has a +37.9% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Hertl shoots left. Kempe is 44.0% vs left-shot opponents (84).
Kempe shoots left. Hertl is 56.7% vs left-shot opponents (690).
Home / Away
Kempe
Hertl
Home
36.4% (66)
59.7% (561)
Away
35.5% (76)
55.9% (562)
By Period
Kempe
Hertl
P1
37.3%
51.6%
P2
36.7%
63.8%
P3
31.4%
58.6%
OT
42.9%
28.6%
Final 5 min
40.0%
58.2%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Kempe
26.0%▼
35.5%
35.9%
Hertl
56.0%▼
60.0%
57.8%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 5, 2026 | 1 | 12:44 | Neutral | Adrian Kempe |
| Feb 5, 2026 | 1 | 08:22 | Neutral | Tomas Hertl |