Scouting Report
Tomas Hertl holds a +2.5% FO% edge overall. Kempe wins 45.7% vs left-shot opponents — Hertl shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Kempe 50.0% vs Hertl 52.3% (-2.5%)
H2H factor
Not applied (2 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Kempe 58.7%
Defensive zone
Hertl 69.9%
Neutral zone
Hertl 58.9%
Result
Tomas Hertl favored at 55.6%
44.4%
55.6%
Kempe
Hertl
Head-to-Head Record
1
-
1
(2 meetings)
1
1
Kempe
Hertl
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Kempe
1
0
Kempe
Hertl
1 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Hertl
0
1
Kempe
Hertl
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Kempe
Hertl
Edge
Even Strength
47.2% (36)
51.6% (1,084)
-4.4%
Power Play
77.8% (9)
61.0% (246)
+16.8%
Penalty Kill
20.0% (5)
44.1% (136)
-24.1%
On penalty kill, Hertl has a +24.1% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Hertl shoots left. Kempe is 45.7% vs left-shot opponents (35).
Kempe shoots left. Hertl is 49.8% vs left-shot opponents (940).
Home / Away
Kempe
Hertl
Home
60.0% (25)
55.2% (696)
Away
40.0% (25)
50.0% (770)
By Period
Kempe
Hertl
P1
57.9%
55.4%
P2
40.0%
54.8%
P3
50.0%
48.9%
Final 5 min
30.0%
54.9%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Kempe
26.0%▼
35.5%
50.0%
Hertl
56.0%▼
60.0%
52.5%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 10, 2022 | 3 | 17:34 | Defensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Mar 10, 2022 | 2 | 13:46 | Offensive | Adrian Kempe |