Scouting Report
Tyler Seguin holds a +17.7% FO% edge overall. Kempe wins 24.1% vs right-shot opponents — Seguin shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Kempe 41.7% vs Seguin 52.5% (-17.7%)
H2H factor
Not applied (2 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Kempe 80.1%
Defensive zone
Kempe 56.6%
Neutral zone
Kempe 69.2%
Result
Adrian Kempe favored at 68.3%
68.3%
31.7%
Kempe
Seguin
Head-to-Head Record
0
-
2
(2 meetings)
0
2
Kempe
Seguin
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Seguin
0
1
Kempe
Seguin
1 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Seguin
0
1
Kempe
Seguin
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Kempe
Seguin
Edge
Even Strength
38.2% (102)
53.2% (201)
-15.0%
Power Play
30.6% (36)
60.0% (25)
-29.4%
Penalty Kill
25.0% (4)
44.4% (9)
-19.4%
On power play, Seguin has a +29.4% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Seguin shoots right. Kempe is 24.1% vs right-shot opponents (58).
Kempe shoots left. Seguin is 52.9% vs left-shot opponents (187).
Home / Away
Kempe
Seguin
Home
36.4% (66)
56.3% (126)
Away
35.5% (76)
50.5% (109)
By Period
Kempe
Seguin
P1
37.3%
44.3%
P2
36.7%
52.1%
P3
31.4%
62.5%
OT
42.9%
80.0%
Final 5 min
40.0%
50.9%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Kempe
26.0%▼
35.5%
35.9%
Seguin
42.0%▼
54.0%
53.6%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 23, 2025 | 3 | 11:13 | Defensive | Tyler Seguin |
| Oct 23, 2025 | 1 | 04:26 | Offensive | Tyler Seguin |