Scouting Report
Tyler Seguin holds a +13.1% FO% edge overall. Look for Seguin on defensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 9 meetings). Kempe wins 41.9% vs right-shot opponents — Seguin shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Kempe 41.0% vs Seguin 53.6% (-13.1%)
H2H factor
Seguin leads 14-2 in 16 meetings
Offensive zone
Kempe 90.7%
Defensive zone
Kempe 89.3%
Neutral zone
Kempe 93.4%
Result
Adrian Kempe favored at 90.4%
90.4%
9.6%
Kempe
Seguin
Head-to-Head Record
2
-
14
(16 meetings)
2
14
Kempe
Seguin
Last 10: Kempe 2-8 Seguin
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Seguin
1
3
Kempe
Seguin
4 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Seguin
0
9
Kempe
Seguin
9 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Seguin
1
2
Kempe
Seguin
3 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Kempe
Seguin
Edge
Even Strength
40.2% (1,881)
53.7% (8,071)
-13.5%
Power Play
43.1% (211)
55.9% (810)
-12.8%
Penalty Kill
42.6% (54)
49.3% (762)
-6.7%
On even strength, Seguin has a +13.5% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Seguin shoots right. Kempe is 41.9% vs right-shot opponents (790).
Kempe shoots left. Seguin is 53.4% vs left-shot opponents (6,798).
Home / Away
Kempe
Seguin
Home
42.4% (1,045)
55.9% (4,759)
Away
38.8% (1,101)
51.4% (4,885)
By Period
Kempe
Seguin
P1
39.5%
52.8%
P2
40.1%
53.3%
P3
42.2%
54.7%
OT
37.0%
54.7%
Final 5 min
37.2%
54.3%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Kempe
26.0%▼
35.5%
40.5%
Seguin
42.0%▼
54.0%
53.6%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 23, 2025 | 3 | 11:13 | Defensive | Tyler Seguin |
| Oct 23, 2025 | 1 | 04:26 | Offensive | Tyler Seguin |
| Jan 8, 2020 | 3 | 13:44 | Offensive | Adrian Kempe |
| Jan 8, 2020 | 2 | 08:10 | Offensive | Tyler Seguin |
| Feb 28, 2019 | 2 | 00:43 | Defensive | Tyler Seguin |
| Jan 17, 2019 | 3 | 18:56 | Neutral | Adrian Kempe |
| Jan 17, 2019 | 2 | 04:31 | Defensive | Tyler Seguin |
| Apr 7, 2018 | 2 | 12:27 | Neutral | Tyler Seguin |
| Apr 7, 2018 | 2 | 08:50 | Defensive | Tyler Seguin |
| Feb 22, 2018 | 3 | 11:30 | Offensive | Tyler Seguin |
| Feb 22, 2018 | 3 | 03:02 | Defensive | Tyler Seguin |
| Feb 22, 2018 | 2 | 06:30 | Defensive | Tyler Seguin |
| Feb 22, 2018 | 2 | 06:24 | Neutral | Tyler Seguin |
| Feb 22, 2018 | 1 | 07:35 | Defensive | Tyler Seguin |
| Jan 30, 2018 | 2 | 00:52 | Defensive | Tyler Seguin |
| Jan 30, 2018 | 1 | 09:08 | Defensive | Tyler Seguin |