Aleksander Barkov vs Brock Nelson
All Seasons · Faceoff Head-to-Head
Scouting Report
Aleksander Barkov holds a +4.7% FO% edge overall. Look for Nelson on defensive-zone draws (61% H2H, 31 meetings). Barkov wins 53.3% vs left-shot opponents — Nelson shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Barkov 53.0% vs Nelson 48.3% (+4.7%)
H2H factor
Nelson leads 58-44 in 102 meetings
Offensive zone
Nelson 65.8%
Defensive zone
Nelson 58.6%
Neutral zone
Nelson 58.9%
Result
Brock Nelson favored at 60.9%
39.1%
60.9%
Barkov
Nelson
Head-to-Head Record
44
-
58
(102 meetings)
44
58
Barkov
Nelson
Last 10: Barkov 5-5 Nelson
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Nelson
13
17
Barkov
Nelson
30 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Nelson
12
19
Barkov
Nelson
31 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Nelson
19
22
Barkov
Nelson
41 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Barkov
Nelson
Edge
Even Strength
52.4% (10,680)
47.9% (9,695)
+4.5%
Power Play
58.1% (2,623)
54.5% (1,132)
+3.6%
Penalty Kill
47.8% (1,272)
43.8% (783)
+4.0%
On even strength, Barkov has a +4.5% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Nelson shoots left. Barkov is 53.3% vs left-shot opponents (9,144).
Barkov shoots left. Nelson is 48.9% vs left-shot opponents (7,533).
Home / Away
Barkov
Nelson
Home
53.8% (7,227)
50.0% (5,845)
Away
52.2% (7,348)
46.5% (5,766)
By Period
Barkov
Nelson
P1
52.7%
48.7%
P2
53.4%
48.5%
P3
52.9%
47.7%
OT
53.0%
45.6%
Final 5 min
54.5%
47.8%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Barkov
44.0%▼
47.5%
53.0%
Nelson
60.0%▲
54.0%
48.3%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 2, 2025 | 2 | 15:09 | Offensive | Aleksander Barkov |
| Feb 2, 2025 | 2 | 08:05 | Offensive | Brock Nelson |
| Feb 2, 2025 | 1 | 16:00 | Offensive | Brock Nelson |
| Feb 2, 2025 | 1 | 02:33 | Neutral | Brock Nelson |
| Feb 2, 2025 | 1 | 00:28 | Defensive | Brock Nelson |
| Jan 27, 2024 | 3 | 07:31 | Defensive | Aleksander Barkov |
| Jan 27, 2024 | 3 | 00:00 | Neutral | Aleksander Barkov |
| Jan 27, 2024 | 2 | 17:13 | Neutral | Aleksander Barkov |
| Jan 27, 2024 | 1 | 16:28 | Defensive | Brock Nelson |
| Dec 2, 2023 | 2 | 13:48 | Neutral | Aleksander Barkov |
| Dec 2, 2023 | 2 | 10:59 | Neutral | Brock Nelson |
| Dec 2, 2023 | 1 | 11:28 | Offensive | Aleksander Barkov |
| Oct 23, 2022 | 3 | 16:29 | Neutral | Brock Nelson |
| Oct 23, 2022 | 3 | 08:45 | Offensive | Brock Nelson |
| Oct 23, 2022 | 3 | 07:28 | Offensive | Brock Nelson |
| Oct 23, 2022 | 2 | 15:50 | Neutral | Aleksander Barkov |
| Oct 23, 2022 | 2 | 01:09 | Offensive | Aleksander Barkov |
| Oct 23, 2022 | 1 | 09:59 | Defensive | Aleksander Barkov |
| Oct 23, 2022 | 1 | 00:39 | Neutral | Aleksander Barkov |
| Oct 13, 2022 | 3 | 18:13 | Defensive | Aleksander Barkov |