Aleksander Barkov vs Brock Nelson
2023-24 · Faceoff Head-to-Head
Scouting Report
Aleksander Barkov holds a +12.1% FO% edge overall. Look for Barkov on neutral-zone draws (75% H2H, 4 meetings). Barkov wins 55.9% vs left-shot opponents — Nelson shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Barkov 56.7% vs Nelson 45.8% (+12.1%)
H2H factor
Not applied (7 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Barkov 79.4%
Defensive zone
Barkov 76.1%
Neutral zone
Barkov 71.9%
Result
Aleksander Barkov favored at 74.1%
74.1%
25.9%
Barkov
Nelson
Head-to-Head Record
5
-
2
(7 meetings)
5
2
Barkov
Nelson
Last 7: Barkov 5-2 Nelson
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Barkov
1
0
Barkov
Nelson
1 total
Defensive Zone
Even
1
1
Barkov
Nelson
2 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Barkov
3
1
Barkov
Nelson
4 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Barkov
Nelson
Edge
Even Strength
56.9% (740)
46.1% (735)
+10.8%
Power Play
63.3% (256)
34.5% (29)
+28.8%
Penalty Kill
45.2% (104)
30.4% (23)
+14.8%
On power play, Barkov has a +28.8% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Nelson shoots left. Barkov is 55.9% vs left-shot opponents (619).
Barkov shoots left. Nelson is 46.1% vs left-shot opponents (547).
Home / Away
Barkov
Nelson
Home
57.4% (540)
48.7% (419)
Away
57.1% (560)
41.3% (368)
By Period
Barkov
Nelson
P1
57.6%
44.6%
P2
56.6%
47.3%
P3
56.9%
43.0%
OT
72.2%
100.0%
Final 5 min
57.3%
39.4%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Barkov
44.0%▼
47.5%
57.3%
Nelson
60.0%▲
54.0%
45.2%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 27, 2024 | 3 | 07:31 | Defensive | Aleksander Barkov |
| Jan 27, 2024 | 3 | 00:00 | Neutral | Aleksander Barkov |
| Jan 27, 2024 | 2 | 17:13 | Neutral | Aleksander Barkov |
| Jan 27, 2024 | 1 | 16:28 | Defensive | Brock Nelson |
| Dec 2, 2023 | 2 | 13:48 | Neutral | Aleksander Barkov |
| Dec 2, 2023 | 2 | 10:59 | Neutral | Brock Nelson |
| Dec 2, 2023 | 1 | 11:28 | Offensive | Aleksander Barkov |