Aleksander Barkov vs Brock Nelson
2022-23 · Faceoff Head-to-Head
Scouting Report
Aleksander Barkov holds a +7.6% FO% edge overall. Look for Nelson on neutral-zone draws (75% H2H, 8 meetings). Barkov wins 54.3% vs left-shot opponents — Nelson shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Barkov 54.5% vs Nelson 47.5% (+7.6%)
H2H factor
Nelson leads 13-7 in 20 meetings
Offensive zone
Nelson 71.8%
Defensive zone
Nelson 70.0%
Neutral zone
Nelson 71.1%
Result
Brock Nelson favored at 71.2%
28.8%
71.2%
Barkov
Nelson
Head-to-Head Record
7
-
13
(20 meetings)
7
13
Barkov
Nelson
Last 10: Barkov 5-5 Nelson
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Nelson
3
5
Barkov
Nelson
8 total
Defensive Zone
Even
2
2
Barkov
Nelson
4 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Nelson
2
6
Barkov
Nelson
8 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Barkov
Nelson
Edge
Even Strength
53.1% (863)
46.9% (915)
+6.2%
Power Play
63.4% (276)
57.4% (94)
+6.0%
Penalty Kill
50.8% (193)
25.0% (28)
+25.8%
On penalty kill, Barkov has a +25.8% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Nelson shoots left. Barkov is 54.3% vs left-shot opponents (844).
Barkov shoots left. Nelson is 47.4% vs left-shot opponents (713).
Home / Away
Barkov
Nelson
Home
58.1% (627)
48.9% (521)
Away
52.1% (705)
45.5% (516)
By Period
Barkov
Nelson
P1
53.3%
45.9%
P2
55.0%
48.0%
P3
56.0%
48.0%
OT
60.9%
33.3%
Final 5 min
55.5%
45.3%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Barkov
44.0%▼
47.5%
54.9%
Nelson
60.0%▲
54.0%
47.3%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 23, 2022 | 3 | 16:29 | Neutral | Brock Nelson |
| Oct 23, 2022 | 3 | 08:45 | Offensive | Brock Nelson |
| Oct 23, 2022 | 3 | 07:28 | Offensive | Brock Nelson |
| Oct 23, 2022 | 2 | 15:50 | Neutral | Aleksander Barkov |
| Oct 23, 2022 | 2 | 01:09 | Offensive | Aleksander Barkov |
| Oct 23, 2022 | 1 | 09:59 | Defensive | Aleksander Barkov |
| Oct 23, 2022 | 1 | 00:39 | Neutral | Aleksander Barkov |
| Oct 13, 2022 | 3 | 18:13 | Defensive | Aleksander Barkov |
| Oct 13, 2022 | 3 | 12:27 | Offensive | Brock Nelson |
| Oct 13, 2022 | 3 | 02:33 | Defensive | Brock Nelson |
| Oct 13, 2022 | 2 | 12:52 | Offensive | Aleksander Barkov |
| Oct 13, 2022 | 2 | 12:45 | Neutral | Brock Nelson |
| Oct 13, 2022 | 2 | 09:57 | Offensive | Aleksander Barkov |
| Oct 13, 2022 | 2 | 00:06 | Neutral | Brock Nelson |
| Oct 13, 2022 | 2 | 00:00 | Neutral | Brock Nelson |
| Oct 13, 2022 | 1 | 17:58 | Offensive | Brock Nelson |
| Oct 13, 2022 | 1 | 16:31 | Offensive | Brock Nelson |
| Oct 13, 2022 | 1 | 06:32 | Defensive | Brock Nelson |
| Oct 13, 2022 | 1 | 06:11 | Neutral | Brock Nelson |
| Oct 13, 2022 | 1 | 00:00 | Neutral | Brock Nelson |